Jaguars vs Colts Week 6 Picks and Predictions: Etienne's About to Break Out

The Jacksonville Jaguars have had the Indianapolis Colts number of late, and we like them to give Indy a scare at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday in this AFC South matchup. Find out more in our Jaguars vs. Colts betting picks.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Oct 16, 2022 • 08:08 ET • 4 min read
Travis Etienne Jacksonville Jaguars NFL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s another AFC South clash on Sunday as the Jacksonville Jaguars face the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Both teams come into this game with just two wins as they look to close ground on the Titans, who currently lead the division.

Don’t miss our NFL picks and predictions for Jaguars vs. Colts on October 16.

Jaguars vs Colts best odds

Jaguars vs Colts picks and predictions

We all know by now that anything can happen on any given Sunday, let alone when it’s a divisional game. The Colts may have acquired quarterback Matt Ryan, but the ground game is still their identity, with star running back Jonathan Taylor at the forefront of the offense.

He hasn’t performed at the levels we saw last year when he was the NFL’s rushing yards leader, and we’re still unsure if he’ll play here, with Deon Jackson potentially starting if Taylor cannot go.

The running back situation for the Jaguars is equally murky, but there are some signs that we might be close to getting a solution. There was an expectation that Trevor Lawrence’s former Clemson teammate, Travis Etienne, would be the lead back in Jacksonville. Still, James Robinson returned from injury this season and looked just as dangerous as he was in his rookie year. 

However, things started to indicate that the team might be moving toward Etienne. Last Sunday, he had 40 snaps to Robinson’s 30 and had more routes, too, with 11 more than his teammate. Etienne's still yet to find the end zone for the Jaguars despite being drafted in 2021, but he’s starting to look electric and like he could really pull off some explosive plays for the Jags.

Etienne isn’t just a receiving threat and has managed five or more yards on 45.5% of his carries this season, the fifth best in the NFL, as well as forcing 0.3 missed tackles per carry.

Most importantly, we’ve seen his snap count increase week-to-week for the past month, going from 37% to 53% now. The stats tell us that he has the ability, the snap count tells us that he has the opportunity, and the fact that only three teams other than the Colts have allowed more receiving yards to RBs tells us that he might just have the perfect opposition.

It’s time to back Travis Etienne to score his first NFL touchdown at a tasty +230.

My best bet: Etienne anytime touchdown (+230 at FanDuel)

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Jaguars vs Colts spread analysis

The Colts are 2.5-point favorites to beat the Jaguars, but they were also favored to win the first game between the teams this season when the Jags ended up winning 24-0 back in Week 2. 

The Colts may be 2-2-1, but both wins came at the expense of their opponents (Kansas City and Denver) falling apart in the 4th quarter.

The Jaguars are being heavily disrespected by the spread. They have lost their previous two games, but last week’s 13-6 defeat to the Texans still saw Trevor Lawrence’s team put up 422 total yards of offense, and on any other day, they’d probably win that game.

The week before, they lost to the undefeated Eagles, and then the week prior to that, they picked apart the Chargers with clinical precision.

Lawrence is not yet a finished product and has already found prior success against Indy. The Colts couldn’t stop him last time, and I don’t have confidence they’ll do much to stop him and Jacksonville on Sunday.

I’d suggest backing the Jaguars to cover.

Jaguars vs Colts Over/Under analysis

The total sits at 41.5, and I’d lean towards backing the Over. We know that both offenses are more than capable of putting up a lot of points when they’re firing.

The Over is 5-0 in the Jaguars' previous five games on the road as they head into Lucas Oil Stadium, and I’m expecting this one to be high-scoring as well. 

With the health of Jonathan Taylor still uncertain, I’d recommend waiting until we have team news to place this bet. If Taylor is given the green light, then don't think twice about smashing the Over. 

Jaguars vs Colts betting trend to know

The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last fourth divisional games. Find more NFL betting trends for Jaguars vs. Colts.

Jaguars vs Colts game info

Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN
Date: Sunday, October 16, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET

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