It feels like only yesterday that this NFL season started, but we’re now down to the eight remaining teams with the Divisional Round odds upon us. This time of year makes each touchdown more important, and I’m on the hunt to work out the best value on the first touchdown market in the NFL odds. It's a market that has some big odds, meaning big payoffs if you can nail them correctly.
I’m studying the first touchdown scorer markets to find three players who offer the perfect mix of value and opportunity to deliver some healthy returns. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Divisional Round's first touchdown scorers.
For more TD prop picks, check out Josh Inglis' Divisional Round TD props!
Divisional Round first touchdown scorer props
- Christian Watson First TD (+2,200 at 888sport)
- Sam LaPorta First TD (+900 at 888sport)
- Rashee Rice First TD (+750 at 888sport)
Picks made on January 19 at 4:10 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best Divisional Round first TD scorer props
Prop bet #1: Good Christian man
The first of our first touchdown bets comes in this weekend’s second game, the Green Bay Packers’ trip to Levi’s Stadium to face the San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are the No. 1 seed and the biggest favorite this weekend with a 9.5-point handicap on the spread. With the Niners being expected to win easy, it means that there’s big value to be had on a Packers player to score first.
Christian Watson returned from injury in the Wild Card Round with just one target, which he hauled in for nine yards. But don’t let that quiet game fool you, he’s still a hugely important to Jordan Love and this Packers’ offense, and his deep threat will be hugely important in this game.
If the Packers are to have any success I see it being by the pass, and Watson has the potential to take the top off this defense. Before the injury he’d scored four touchdowns in his last three games and I think +2,200 is a massive price in the Christian Watson odds for him scoring first on Saturday.
Christian Watson prop: First TD (+2,200 at 888sport)
Prop bet #2: LaPorta pops at a price
As of Friday afternoon, Sam LaPorta is still questionable to suit up in this game. But don’t forget that we heard the same last week and he took the field against the Rams, and I’m fully expecting him to be a go come Sunday.
One of the reasons I think the Detroit Lions will be so keen to see him play is that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are bad against tight ends. They’ve given up seven touchdowns to the position, with only five teams allowing more. He scored against the Rams, another bad team against TEs and added that to the 10 touchdowns he scored in the regular season.
The Lions also struggle against TEs, which did make me consider the Cade Otton odds of +2,200 for a split second. But with the Lions being strong favorites, I think the smart play is on the Sam LaPorta odds at +900.
Sam LaPorta prop: First TD (+900 at 888sport)
Prop bet #3: Red-hot Rice
The final game of the Divisional Round is the one that everybody has been waiting for – the latest instalment of Patrick Mahomes vs. Josh Allen. I think the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense gives them the edge over the Buffalo Bills in this one, which leads me to look for a Chiefs player to score first, and I can’t resist the Rashee Rice odds.
No rookie in the NFL has had more red-zone targets than Rice this season with 22. That’s six more than his nearest competition in Puka Nacua. To put it simply, he is seeing genuinely great usage, which makes that +750 to score first look really appealing.
He scored last week against the Dolphins, which was his third TD in his past five games, and he’s really taken the leap and become a key member of this offense. In those past five games he’s had double-digit targets on three occasions and has now outscored Travis Kelce this season.
Put your faith in Rice to continue his great rookie season and have a big game against the Bills.
Rashee Rice prop: First TD (+750 at 888sport)
Not intended for use in MA.
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