Best NFL Touchdown Props for Divisional Round: Pacheco Dices Bills Defense

Prop bet #1: Upping the Houston passing volume

With the Houston Texans entering as a heavy dog this weekend vs. the Baltimore Ravens who will be without corner Marlon Humphrey and currently have five DBs out or on the IR, there is some value in Houston's pass-catchers — especially with Noah Brown out.

John Metchie led all Houston receivers in snap share (77.3%) last week and was second in route share at 69%. He will be the No.3 passing option Saturday behind Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz but had the second-most targets last week in a game that Houston ran just 44 total plays.

If the Ravens lock down Collins, Metchie could easily be the biggest benefactor. Robert Woods is back but he ran just eight routes last week. Metchie isn’t very probably for a TD Saturday, but with a price of +650 with some sharper books as short as +350, he is worth a half-unit in a game Houston could be passing often and a lot late. 

With the likely increase in pass volume and some possible wind, C.J. Stroud could also be doing a little more scrambling. At +1,000 for a TD, he is worth a half-unit as well. Pinnacle is pricing this at +534 which is a massive discrepancy and a lot closer to where this price should be.

He has three rushing TDs on the season and over his last three losses, he has rushed for a TD in two of them.

It’s a half-unit on both Metchie and Stroud to kick off the Divisional Round. 

CJ Stroud prop: anytime TD (+1,000 at FanDuel at 0.5u)

John Metchie prop: anytime TD (+650 at BetRivers at 0.5u)

Prop bet #2: Love big dog QB TDs

Using the same logic as the C.J. Stroud TD at +1,000, Jordan Love to score a TD at the same price is projecting a similar +EV from THE BLITZ.

This is an offense that should also see an increase in pass volume as a 9.5-point dog. Love has four rushing TDs on the season including two over the last three weeks of the regular season.

Aaron Jones gets the red-zone carries and although he had three TDs last week, he was 0-for-21 on his last 21 red-zone carries heading into that game. Dating back to Week 4, Jones is 1-for-33 on RZ carries. He isn’t the most efficient red-zone runner which helps Love’s scramble chances inside the 20.

Trailing is the preferred game script here but it’s certainly not needed. Love showed he can move the ball vs. good defenses and his receivers are the healthiest they’ve been all season. 

THE BLITZ is already on his Over 2.5 carries at plus money and at +1,000 for a score with some sharper books at +600, it’s worth a half-unit. 

Jordan Love prop: anytime TD (+1,000 at FanDuel at 0.5u) 

Prop bet #3: Piling on Pacheco

I’ve taken some swings this weekend, but I’m finishing up the card with a higher probable TD which is still 20 to 15 points of expected value at +120 and that’s with Kansas City Chiefs' running back Isiah Pacheco. 

The Chiefs’ running back is fresh off a TD game vs. Miami where his TD odds closed as short as -115. This matchup is the shortest of all the spreads this weekend which projects a neutral game script on both sides and that should keep KC running the ball.

Pacheco had 21 of the 25 RB carries last week until Clyde Edwards-Helaire got the final four including a lost fumble. It should be the Pacheco show this weekend at Orchard Park. He has six TDs over his last five games and that includes 26 red-zone rush attempts and five red-zone targets. 

The Buffalo Bills could also be missing a lot of tackle talent as they enter wildly thin at linebacker (and in the secondary) with starters Tyrel Dodson and Terrell Bernard questionable. That’s on top of Matt Milano and Baylon Spector out. Missing DT Jordan Phillips is also a huge blow to their interior run defense. This is a wounded Buffalo defense on a short week. 

I’m playing Pacheco to +105 or even +100 if none of these Buffalo defenders start. 

Isiah Pacheco prop: Anytime TD (+120 at FanDuel)