The NFL Draft odds have seen some serious changes, and it's only Week 2!
And the most interesting market may not be who is going first overall (Arch Manning leads the charge at 29%), but which team will earn the honor of selecting first.
The Miami Dolphins are the current leader in the clubhouse with a remarkable 53% probability at Kalshi to finish with the NFL's worst record.
Latest NFL worst record odds: Dolphins Soar to Top (Bottom?) Spot
The Dolphins trailed 14-6 at halftime against the 49ers in Week 2. San Francisco proceeded to dump 21 third-quarter points on the Fins to run away with it.
Miami is now listed with a whopping 53% chance to finish with the league's worst record, way ahead of fellow losers, the Tennessee Titans and Washington Commanders.
| Team |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Dolphins |
53% |
 Titans |
18% |
 Commanders |
16% |
 Browns |
12% |
 Falcons |
8% |
 Panthers |
5% |
 Raiders |
3% |
 Cardinals |
1% |
Dolphins faithful aren't strangers to this sort of thing
The Miami Dolphins have not won a playoff game since Dec. 30, 2000. That was the first season without Dan Marino behind center.
In the intervening years, they have had moments of excitement (remember the Wildcat? Ricky Williams? Chad Pennington?) but it's been fleeting.
Twice since 2010, the Dolphins have selected the player they thought would be the franchise QB of the future who would usher them out of what has now become decades-long doldrums. The first was Ryan Tannehill in 2012 (eighth overall), and the second was Tua Tagovailoa in 2020 (fifth).
For a few short weeks into Mike McDaniel's tenure as head coach, armed with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill as his primary options, Tagovailoa looked like precisely that guy. Well, several concussions later, all of those names are gone, and the Dolphins are mired in yet another rebuild.
Everyone knew 2026 would be bad, but this has not looked like a competitive team through two weeks. There is a distinct possibility that this edition mirrors the 2007 team that finished 1-15. The question becomes: Is Arch Manning their guy?
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Titans, Commanders also in the hunt
Miami isn't alone.
Titans: The Tennessee Titans looked more competitive than the Dolphins in Week 2, at least in the final score, narrowly losing to the Eagles 24-20. But that is a bit of a smokescreen. Philly outgained the Titans by 50 yards and had possession for 36:25, compared to just 23:35 for Tennessee. A pair of Jalen Hurts interceptions made that game look a lot closer than it was.
Commanders: The Washington Commanders are 0-2 after an ugly loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Worse, Jayden Daniels suffered a gnarly elbow injury in the loss, and while his timeline is unclear, it'd be surprising if he's back soon. Losing the franchise QB takes all of the air out of Washington's sails.
Browns: The Cleveland Browns may have saved themselves from the embarrassment of being the worst team in football simply by defeating the Baltimore Ravens in a surprise early-afternoon clash in Week 2. They're still 12% here because this is definitely a team that could lose out, but they've escaped pure shame for now.
2027 NFL Draft prediction: Dolphins "earn" first pick
I wouldn't invest in it at 53%, but as a Dolphins fan going on 33 years, I've seen this movie before. This team isn't even trying to win, and it won't.
Jeff Hafley is probably safe as the head coach to oversee the draft and whatever the Dolphins can do with whichever quarterback they ultimately go with. But it has been ugly. Not only for two weeks, but for 30 years. Don Shula retired as head coach after the 1995 season. It's been mostly downhill since.
Still, the path to glory generally lies with whoever is lining up behind center. Just ask the Kansas City Chiefs.
Latest 2027 NFL Draft odds to be No. 1 pick
| Name | Probability |
|---|---|
 Arch Manning (QB) |
28% |
 Trinidad Chambliss (QB) |
17% |
 CJ Carr (QB) |
14% |
 Darian Mensah (QB) |
14% |
 Dante Moore (QB) |
11% |
 Jeremiah Smith (WR) |
8% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi. For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Manning remains the favorite, but this is far from over, with several other QBs (Chambliss, Carr, Mensah) all knocking at the door.
Trinidad Chambliss rises in NFL Draft odds
Trinidad Chambliss, not Arch Manning, is the biggest mover. Ole Miss is 3-0, but the biggest headline-grabber came as it beat former head coach Lane Kiffin and LSU 32-24 this weekend.
Chambliss went 33-for-48 for 363 yards and two touchdown passes in the victory. He has seven TDs through three games with 924 air yards.
It's still Manning's world
For now, anyway, Arch Manning remains on top of the odds board with a 29% chance at being selected first overall.
Manning helped lead Texas to a wild comeback win over Ohio State in Week 2, and while the Longhorns thumped UTSA 30-6 in Week 3, the QB was not pleased with his self-described "sloppy" performance.
Through three games, he has seven touchdown passes and 664 passing yards. That's not exactly lighting the field on fire in the way the Dolphins may want from that top pick.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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