The Week 3 edition of Thursday Night Football has bloodbath written all over it with the Buffalo Bills — who are playing up to their expectations as Super Bowl contenders — hosting the pitiful Miami Dolphins.
My Dolphins vs. Bills predictions believe James Cook will be utilized plenty in Buffalo's attack, and not just in the run game.
Find out more in my NFL picks for this division showdown on September 18, with kickoff at 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime.
Dolphins vs Bills prediction
Dolphins vs Bills Best bet: James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
Through two games, the Miami Dolphins have been destroyed through the air against opposing running backs, allowing 146 total receiving yards to the RB position — the third-worst mark in the NFL.
It’s not just a lot of total yards either, as Miami is allowing massive chunk plays on these passes. The Colts and Patriots combined for 11 completions to backs on 11 targets for an average of 13.2 yards per catch, so don’t be shocked if James Cook hits the Over in one go.
Cook had a massive game through the air in Week 1 vs. the Ravens, catching all five of his targets to compile 58 yards.
The RB has also had success surpassing the 11.5 mark against the Dolphins. He had games of 25 and 17 receiving yards against them last season, while in 2023, he achieved marks of 48 and 16.
With a large spread, there’s always a concern the favorite could be in a spot to take their foot off the gas and potentially limit snaps from some starters, but we saw signs of life from Miami’s offense last week.
This leads me to believe the Buffalo Bills offense will be aggressive throughout the game, given Miami’s ability to put up points.
Dolphins vs Bills TNF same-game parlay
While points will come easily for the Bills, I expect the Dolphins to contribute to the scoring as well.
Let’s not pretend the Bills have an elite defense, as they currently rank last in yards allowed per rush at 6.8.
The Fins are tied for fourth in this category offensively, so look for them to lean on De'Von Achane to take some pressure off the rest of the offense.
Dolphins vs Bills SGP
- James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards
- De'Von Achane Over 53.5 rushing yards
- Both teams to score 20+ points - Yes
Our big-ticket SGP: James Cooks
- James Cook already has three touchdowns and is coming off a season where he scored 18.
- He notably had a three-touchdown game vs Miami last season.
Dolphins vs Bills SGP
- James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards
- De'Von Achane Over 53.5 rushing yards
- Both teams to score 20+ points - Yes
- James Cook anytime touchdown
Dolphins vs Bills odds
- Spread: Miami +11.5 | Buffalo -11.5
- Moneyline: Miami +550 | Buffalo -800
- Over/Under: Over 49.5 | Under 49.5
Dolphins vs Bills betting trend to know
The Bills have gone Over their team total in 10 of their last 11 home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Dolphins vs. Bills.
How to watch Dolphins vs Bills
| Location | Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY |
| Date | Thursday, September 18, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | Amazon Prime |
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