AFC East rivals collide on Thursday Night Football, when the Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins. The Bills have the top offense in the league in terms of EPA/play, while the Dolphins have the lowest-rated defense.
That should lead to lots of scoring for the home side, and I'm betting on some of those points to come from touchdown machine James Cook. Here are my best free Dolphins vs. Bills anytime touchdown picks for September 18.
Dolphins anytime touchdown pick
Tyreek Hill (+165 at bet365)
The Buffalo Bills held the Jets to an incredible 83 passing yards last week. That said, Buffalo was torched in Week 1 and ranked last in the NFL in defensive dropback success rate after Week 9 last year.
This is a Bills secondary that is extremely banged-up at cornerback and surrendered 143 receiving yards and a touchdown to Zay Flowers in Week 1. That weakness could be exploited by Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill.
Hill racked up 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns in 2023, before being limited to six scores last year. The five-time All-Pro is still a dangerous weapon and proved that last week by hauling in six catches for 109 yards against New England.
He had a 47-yard reception that he likely would have scored on if Tua Tagovailoa hadn't underthrown the ball.
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Bills anytime touchdown pick
James Cook (-170 at bet365)
James Cook scored 21 touchdowns (19 rushing and two receiving) in 19 total games last season. Through two weeks this year, the Bills running back has rushed for 176 yards and three scores.
The Dolphins are last in the league in defensive EPA and have surrendered more than 30 points in back-to-back games against the Colts and Patriots. If they couldn't stop those middling offenses, they won't be able to stop a highly efficient Bills attack.
Cook's "anytime TD" price is juiced to -170, but with the Bills RB punching it into the end zone in 14 of his last 17 games (82.4%), that's still great value for our NFL picks on an implied probability of 63%.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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