In theory, it's a classic AFC East matchup on Thursday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills hosting the Miami Dolphins at Highmark Stadium.
In reality, the two divisional rivals couldn’t be off to more opposing starts to the 2025 season.
Here are my top NFL picks surrounding Josh Allen's odds on Thursday, September 18.
Josh Allen prop pick
Josh Allen best bet: Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards (-110 at bet365)
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen has rushed for 89 yards through two games, and the Miami Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to pile up 57 yards on the ground after two weeks.
This is a short turnaround for a reeling Miami defense that has allowed the highest EPA per play while ranking fifth last in DVOA and third last in PFF defense grade.
Allen has historically run wild on the Dolphins, too, with an average of 46.2 yards per game and 7.3 yards per rushing attempt.
The key for this Over is Miami keeping the game close enough and/or generating enough pressure to require Allen to use his legs to help move the chains.
I’m expecting enough push from the Dolphins in prime time, and this total is low enough that one chunk run from the reigning NFL MVP will go a long way to cashing this ticket.
Josh Allen same-game parlay
Josh Allen Over 28.5 rushing yards
Bills -11
Ray Davis Over 21.5 rushing yards
The Bills have covered the number in four of their past five games, and in three of their past four meetings with the Dolphins.
As highlighted, the Miami defense has struggled to start the year, while Buffalo is showcasing championship-caliber chops on offense with a league-high EPA per play, ranking third in defensive DVOA and fourth in PFF offense grade.
It’s been a slow start for Bills running back Ray Davis with just 10 carries for 26 yards, but nine of those totes came last week, and I’m anticipating a similar workload this week with Buffalo a monster favorite over Miami.
Davis had 12 carries of 10+ yards with a solid 70.0 PFF elusive rating last year, so he has the potential to break off a big run and do the heavy lifting for this Over. Plus, Miami has already allowed a backup RB to rush for at least 27 yards in consecutive games.
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