Thursday Night Football tonight is an AFC East matchup... but it might be over by halftime.
The Bills are nearly two-touchdown favorites against the Dolphins — but that doesn't mean there aren't some valuable TNF props on the board to bet.
Our NFL player prop projections have identified some great value plays, with Tua Tagovailoa and De'Von Achane highlighting our best Dolphins vs. Bills computer picks.
Dolphins vs Bills computer picks for Thursday Night Football
 Dolphins |
 Bills |
|---|---|
| Tagovailoa o232.5 pass -110 | Allen o31.5 rush -110 |
| Achane o53.5 rush -110 | Cook o11.5 rec -110 |
| Achane o36.5 rec -120 | Coleman o41.5 rec -110 |
| Hill u5.5 catches -110 | Kincaid o29.5 rec -110 |
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Dolphins TNF computer picks
Tua Tagovailoa Over 232.5 passing yards (-110)
Projection: 269.5 yards
Our projections expect Tua to throw a lot tonight — likely as a result of being behind on the scoreboard — and finish well beyond his passing total.
Alternate-total bet
250+ yards (+125): Shows a lot of value.
De'Von Achane Over 53.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 63.6 yards
We expect Achane to also get the job done against the Bills, with a projection about 10 yards north of his rushing total.
Alternate-total bet
60+ yards (+110): There is a good value in this small alt-total.
De'Von Achane Over 36.5 receiving yards (-120)
Projection: 41.0 yards
Achane should also see more work against in the passing game, as our projections have him hitting 40 receiving yards after getting 112 through his first two games.
Tyreek Hill Under 5.5 receptions (-110)
Projection: 5.1 receptions
Tyreek has 10 catches through two games, and our projections don't expect him to beat that average tonight.
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Bills TNF computer picks
Josh Allen Over 31.5 rushing yards (-110)
Projection: 37.7 yards
Allen has rushed for 30 and 59 yards in his first two games, and our projections like him to post a number in the 30s again tonight.
Alternate-total bet
40+ yards (+190): Shows a tiny amount of value.
James Cook Over 11.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 16.2 yards
Cook can top this number with just 1-2 catches; our projections expect him to get two catches and also go Over this number.
Keon Coleman Over 41.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 47.3 yards
Our projections like Coleman, who is establishing himself as Buffalo's top WR, to go Over a modest total against a bad Dolphins defense.
Dalton Kincaid Over 29.5 receiving yards (-110)
Projection: 36.8 yards
Buffalo's TE has topped this number in each of his first two games, and our projections expect him to make it three games in a row tonight.
Not intended for use in MA.
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