Commanders vs Patriots Prediction, Picks & Odds for This Week’s NFL Preseason Game

Drake Maye will play while Jayden Daniels (and Marcus Mariota) will not. The Pats defense is strong enough to handle the Commanders' second and third-stringers and to cover the spread.

Sam Farley - Contributor at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Aug 8, 2025 • 07:51 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 8 hrs
NE
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WAS
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EXPERT PICK - SPREAD
New England -6.5 (-110) New England -6.5 (-110)
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Drake Maye New England Patriots NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. Patriots QB Drake Maye during training camp.

Friday serves up several NFL preseason clashes, including the Washington Commanders vs. New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium. 

These teams have met a staggering 25 times in preseason games, with New England winning the majority. My Commanders vs. Patriots predictions expect more of the same tonight.

I explain further in my NFL picks on Friday, August 8.

Commanders vs Patriots prediction

Commanders vs Patriots Best bet: Patriots -6.5 (-110 at bet365)

This is a huge season for the New England Patriots and one that has fans on the edge of their seats. At times last year, we saw Drake Maye's talent and potential, but he wasn’t consistent. 

The big question now is how well and how quickly Maye & Co. can get to grips with Josh McDaniels' offense, and the answer seems to be that they’re quickly improving. 

There were strong performances in Wednesday’s joint practice, with Maye going 18-for-27 against the Washington Commanders' first string, throwing multiple touchdown passes.

The league has been put on notice, and we’ll see Maye, albeit briefly, on Friday night. Josh Dobbs is a capable backup, and the defense could be among the better units in the NFL this season.

On the other sideline, Jayden Daniels will not play, which instantly makes the Commanders less appealing. With Daniels sitting and Marcus Mariota sidelined by injury, there will be plenty of Josh Johnson and Sam Hartman, an uninspiring pair of quarterbacks who’ll struggle to excel against a well-oiled Patriots defense.

New Pats head coach Mike Vrabel doesn’t have the best preseason history, with a narrow 8-9 losing record, but Dan Quinn teams have won just seven of his 24 preseason games. 

With the Pats excelling in joint practice and Maye getting time under center, we're taking New England to cover. The Pats are so well built on defense that their second string will be more than a match for the Commanders.

Commanders vs Patriots odds

Commanders vs Patriots live odds

Commanders vs Patriots opening odds

  • Spread: Commanders +1.5 (-110) | Patriots -6.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Commanders +110 | Patriots -130
  • Over/Under: Over 33.5 (-110) | Under 33.5 (-110)

How to watch Commanders vs Patriots

Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Date: Friday, August 7, 2025
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
TV: Patriots Preseason Network, NFL+

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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Sam Farley
Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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