It’s the rubber match of what’s been a very competitive three-game set between the NL West-leading San Diego Padres and the host Milwaukee Brewers, who sit second in the NL Central.
The Padres put an end to Milwaukee’s five-game win streak last time out, and now seek their fourth win in five games.
However, my Padres vs. Brewers predictions and free MLB picks gives the edge to the home team, particularly with the matchup on the mound.
Who will win Padres vs Brewers today: Brewers moneyline (-138)
The Milwaukee Brewers will look to win the series on the strength of lefty Kyle Harrison, who’s 3-1 with a 2.41 ERA.
Harrison has been solid for the Brew Crew, having allowed two earned runs or less in all seven starts this season.
That’s a big advantage against San Diego Padres righty Griffin Canning, who was rocked in his last start, chased after 4 1/3 innings against the Cardinals after surrendering seven hits and six earned runs.
Milwaukee is eighth in runs scored, while San Diego ranks Bottom 7 in baseball. The Friars have been even less potent of late, scoring just 15 runs across their last six games.
COVERS INTEL: Harrison has been brilliant in day starts in 2026, posting a stellar 1.56 ERA in 17 1/3 innings while holding opponents to a .186 average.
Padres vs Brewers Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
These teams have combined for nine runs or more just three times in the last 10 meetings, with the Under cashing in six of the last eight contests.
The Brewers have hit the Under with frequency, posting a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 overall. Not to be outdone, the Padres have an Under record of 8-2 over their last 10 tilts.
These trends make sense, given Milwaukee is 20th in OPS on the year while San Diego is 28th.
- ML/RL bets: 3-9, -3.00 units
- Over/Under bets: 6-8, +3.94 units
Padres vs Brewers odds
- Moneyline: Padres +133 | Brewers -138
- Run line: Padres +1.5 | Brewers -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Padres vs Brewers trend
Each of San Diego’s last six games after playing the previous day have hit the Under. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Brewers.
How to watch Padres vs Brewers and game info
| Location | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date | Thursday, May 14, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | Padres.TV, Brewers.TV |
| Padres starting pitcher | Griffin Canning (0-1, 6.75 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher | Kyle Harrison (3-1, 2.41 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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