Commanders vs Giants Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Washington in Command

The Giants have surprised many this season, but Saquon Barkley's been quiet while they nurse many injuries. Our NFL betting picks are high on the Commanders — see if Washington can bag another W in Week 13.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 8:30 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

The Washington Commanders will go for their fourth straight victory when they visit the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. 

The Commanders have won six of their last seven games, with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback for five of those triumphs. He is expected to stay under center regardless of how Carson Wentz’s finger injury progresses this week. Meanwhile, the Giants have lost three of their last four games after a promising start to 2022.

Can New York protect their home turf? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for Commanders vs Giants on Sunday, December 4.

Commanders vs Giants best odds

Commanders vs Giants picks and predictions

Not only have the Commanders gone 6-1 straight-up in their last seven games, but they’ve also gone 6-0-1 to the spread in that stretch. They should reward their backers once more this Sunday.

Taylor Heinicke (194.8 yards per game, 60.8% completion rate, 7-5 touchdown-interception ratio) hasn’t necessarily represented an upgrade over Carson Wentz at quarterback for Washington, but it’s hard to argue with results. The Commanders’ defense has played much more inspired football of late, helping lead their team to a +7 turnover ratio over their 6-1 straight-up run. 

They’ve been extremely stingy over their last seven games, limiting the opposition to 15.4 points per tilt. This unit could get a boost on Sunday if former Defensive Rookie of the Year Chase Young is able to make his season debut. 

Giants signal-caller Daniel Jones has been far less mistake-prone in 2022 than he was in his first three years as a professional. But we still catch glimpses of games going sideways, like against the Lions two weeks ago, when he tossed two picks. The odds of such a scenario have increased over the last two games with the sudden drop in production from superstar running back Saquon Barkley

The Penn State product had a wonderful start to the campaign despite some minor injuries, rushing for 103.4 yards per game over his first nine efforts. But he’s totaled a mere 61 yards over his last two performances, both losses. 

Barkley’s chances for a bounce-back game are slim, as he faces a Commanders defense that’s eighth in rushing yards allowed per contest (108.4). Washington has surrendered just six touchdowns on the ground in 2022, tied for third in the NFL. 

The Giants can’t win if they can’t score. Bettors should be unafraid to lay less than a field goal with the surging Commanders.

My best bet: Commanders -1.5 (-114 at FanDuel)

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Commanders vs Giants spread analysis

Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. took the internet by storm with the giant hat he wore after beating the Falcons in Week 12, but if he keeps playing like he did last week, he can get away with wearing whatever he wants.

Robinson rushed for 105 yards on 18 carries over Atlanta, a personal best for the rookie, and a season-best for Washington halfbacks. With Antonio Gibson being held back in practice due to a foot injury, Robinson could have the backfield all to himself on Sunday. 

The Alabama product has another chance at reaching the 100-yard plateau against New York, which is 26th in rushing defense, coughing up 138.9 yards per game on the ground. 

The Commanders have covered in four straight road affairs, so they won’t be intimidated by the hostile New Jersey atmosphere. Home field has meant little in this NFC East rivalry of late, as the visitors have covered in each of their last five contests. 

Meanwhile, the Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against NFC East opponents, and have failed to cover in each of their last seven games played in December.

Commanders vs Giants Over/Under analysis

With both offenses ranking in the lower third fn the league by points per game, it’s difficult to envision Over bettors prevailing, even against this low total. 

The Giants are 22nd in scoring this season (20.5 points per game). They could have some difficulty just fielding a viable offense on Sunday, as wide receivers Darius Slayton and Richie James, tight end Daniel Bellinger, and linemen Joshua Ezeudu and Jon Feliciano are all considered questionable for this one. Combine this with regression from Barkley, and it’s a recipe for disaster.

The Commanders are 24th in scoring in 2022 (19.4 points per game), and have topped 23 points just once during their 6-1 run. Heinicke does not represent a game-breaking quarterback for this team — Washington is highly likely to ride Robinson and kill clock throughout.

The trends are squarely in favor of Under bettors in this spot. The Commanders have gone below the total in eight of their last 10 games overall, and in six of their last eight games played in December. The Under is also 5-0-1 in the Giants’ last six home games against teams with a winning road record, and 34-15-2 in their last 51 home games. 

Commanders vs Giants betting trend to know

The Under is 18-4 in the last 22 meetings between these two teams at MetLife Stadium. Find more NFL betting trends for Commanders vs. Giants.

Commanders vs Giants game info

Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Giants +1, 41 O/U

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