Chiefs vs Broncos Week 14 Picks and Predictions: Denver Heads Toward Another Embarrassment

Kansas City has dominated Denver in recent years and this Broncos team, with Russell Wilson, is the worst yet. No surprise but our NFL betting picks are confident in the Chiefs' chances of handling their business in Denver.

Last Updated: Dec 11, 2022 8:18 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Travis Kelce Kansas City Chiefs NFL
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The Kansas City Chiefs had looked unstoppable for quite some time but fell 27-24 to the Bengals last week. They will look to answer back in Week 14 to stay in the race for the lone bye as the AFC's top seed.

The Denver Broncos’ season is all but over, following their fourth straight loss and eighth in nine games. 

Can Russell Wilson finally get some points on the board and navigate a divisional upset or will Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs answer emphatically and reassert their dominance?

Continue reading for free NFL picks and predictions for the Chiefs vs. Broncos matchup.

Chiefs vs Broncos best odds

Chiefs vs Broncos picks and predictions

There are so many ways to highlight how bad things really are for the Broncos’ offense. They’re dead last in points per game at 13.8 and if Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson mustered more than 17 points in each of their games, their record would be 8-4 and they would be tied for the third seed heading into Sunday.

The only silver lining of the season has been their defense, which has been arguably the league's best. It ranks first in yards allowed per drive and second in points per drive. DVOA is a little less kind, ranking the unit seventh overall but with a fourth-ranked pass defense. The metric's biggest knock is likely the Broncos' schedule of offenses, which ranks 30th according to the metric.

To that point, they will face plenty of challenges come Sunday. Kansas City comes in with the top-ranked offense according to DVOA, which includes the second-best passing attack. The Chiefs make the most of their time with the ball, ranking first in both yards and points per drive.

They pose a threat unlike many in the rest of the league, and certainly much unlike the Broncos. It's hard to believe that Sunday's number is anything more than a formality, given that the Chiefs are on the road and facing someone within their division. They have the juice to squeeze the Broncos, make no mistake about it.

My best bet: Chiefs -8.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

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Chiefs vs Broncos spread analysis

The Chiefs opened as 8-point favorites and have since seen movement to -9.5 at some shops.

Kansas City is just 4-7-1 against the spread this season, good for sixth-worst in the league. It has failed to cover in five of its last seven games despite winning all but one of those games. As an away favorite it’s 2-3.

Denver is 4-8 against the spread, which is the second-worst mark in the NFL. The Broncos covered last week as similarly-sized underdogs against the Ravens, but that was their first time covering in over a month.

Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 42 but has crept up to 44 across the market.

The Chiefs are 7-5 to the Under this season and have gone Under in four of their last five. They are 6-4 to the Under as favorites.

The Broncos are 11-1 to the Under, by far the best mark this season. In all 11 of the Unders they have played in, just one has come within the total by a field goal.

Chiefs vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Chiefs are positioned as a good six-point teaser option this week, having beaten the Broncos 13 times in a row and never by less than three points. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Broncos.

Chiefs vs Broncos game info

Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Date: Sunday, December 11, 2022
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Broncos +8.5, O/U 41.5

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