The Kansas City Chiefs are road favorites over the Denver Broncos ahead of their 4:25 p.m. ET rematch at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver on Sunday, Nov. 1, with the AFC West top spot on the line.
My early Chiefs vs. Broncos predictions and NFL picks expect Denver to top Kansas City for the fourth straight time in the Centennial State while the total goes Under the number in this Week 8 clash.
Chiefs vs Broncos predictions
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Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Early Chiefs vs Broncos spread pick: Broncos +1.5
The Denver Broncos have won three straight with 23.3 points per game since head coach Sean Payton took over play-calling duties, and the defense ranks fifth in DVOA while allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play for the year.
Denver is also likely to have four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II (ankle) back in the lineup Sunday.
The Kansas City Chiefs have also lost each of their last three games at Mile High, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has thrown for a career-low 6.7 aDoT, including 5.1 in each of the past two games.
Denver also paces the NFL in PFF pass rush grade while allowing the sixth-lowest yards per passing attempt, so I’m expecting Mahomes to have his hands full again this week.
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Early Chiefs vs Broncos total pick: Under 41.5
Denver isn’t the only team sending out a solid defense, and the total has gone Under the number in seven consecutive games between these AFC West rivals.
Kansas City has allowed the fifth-lowest EPA per play and second-fewest points per game this season, so Broncos QB Bo Nix will also have his work cut out for him Sunday.
Denver has also used the fourth-most play-clock time since Payton took over play calling, and the Broncos have averaged the third-fewest plays per game for the season.
Similarly, the Chiefs have run the ninth-fewest plays per game.
Chiefs vs Broncos odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Chiefs vs Broncos spread: Chiefs -1.5
- Chiefs vs Broncos moneyline: Chiefs 52%, Broncos 49%
- Chiefs vs Broncos Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Chiefs vs Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 1, 2026, 4:25 p.m. ET
- City: Denver, Colo.
- Venue: Empower Field at Mile High
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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