The NFL schedule makers did all they could to ensure Patrick Mahomes would be back on the field for the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1.
Mahomes, who is coming off a nasty knee injury in 2025, gets an extra day to heal with the Chiefs hosting the Denver Broncos as slim 2.5-point favorites on Monday Night Football.
I measure these AFC West rivals for my Broncos vs. Chiefs predictions and give early leans and NFL picks for Sept. 14.
Broncos vs Chiefs predictions
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Early Broncos vs Chiefs spread pick: Broncos +2.5
The Denver Broncos are the defending division champs and can plant their flag for the 2026 season by going into Arrowhead Stadium and stealing a win from the Kansas City Chiefs.
This defense remains one of the elite stop units but it’s the offense that could really make the difference on Monday.
Head coach Sean Payton is turning the playbook over to offensive coordinator Davis Webb, who is looking to lively up this Broncos pass game after conservative calls in Bo Nix’s first two seasons. Adding a true WR1 in Jaylen Waddle helps Nix let loose.
Kansas City’s defense has lost ground recently, especially the pass rush. Steve Spagnuolo’s blitz-heavy schemes couldn't translate those extra rushers into sacks in 2025 and they run into arguably the best offensive line in the league in Week 1.
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Early Broncos vs Chiefs total pick: Under 43.5
If Denver is going to take a win in KC — or at least cover the spread — it won’t be in a shootout.
The Broncos’ defense is going to test Patrick Mahomes' mobility early and often. This pass rush was No. 2 in pressure rate and collected a league-high 68 sacks in 2025.
Defense coordinator Vance Joseph has had success slowing down Mahomes recently, limiting him to 65.5% completions with two TDs, one INT, and seven sacks in the past two matchups.
Kansas City has some banged-up bodies on the offensive line entering Week 1, with Trey Smith and Josh Simmons dealing with injuries.
The Chiefs’ OL didn’t look strong in preseason protection, and Mahomes may not have time to strike deep or the mobility to move away from pressure.
I expect KC to shorten the pass calls and utilize its big offseason acquisition, RB Kenneth Walker III. That will keep gains modest and the clock ticking, which is always good for the Under.
Broncos vs Chiefs odds
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- Broncos vs Chiefs spread: Chiefs -2.5
- Broncos vs Chiefs moneyline: Broncos 44%, Chiefs 56%
- Broncos vs Chiefs Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Broncos vs Chiefs
- Broncos vs Chiefs matchup
- Date: Monday, Sept. 14, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Kansas City, Mo.
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: ESPN/ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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