PHI -6.5 o44.5
WAS 6.5 u44.5
GB 2.0 o46.5
CHI -2.0 u46.5
BUF -10.5 o41.0
CLE 10.5 u41.0
TB -3.0 o45.5
CAR 3.0 u45.5
LAC 2.0 o49.5
DAL -2.0 u49.5
NYJ 6.5 o40.5
NO -6.5 u40.5
MIN -2.5 o43.5
NYG 2.5 u43.5
KC -3.0 o38.0
TEN 3.0 u38.0
CIN -4.0 o47.5
MIA 4.0 u47.5
JAC 3.5 o47.0
DEN -3.5 u47.0
ATL -3.0 o48.0
ARI 3.0 u48.0
LV 14.0 o38.0
HOU -14.0 u38.0
PIT 7.0 o52.0
DET -7.0 u52.0
NE 3.0 o48.5
BAL -3.0 u48.5
SF -6.0 o46.5
IND 6.0 u46.5
Final 4OT Dec 18
LA 37 2.0 o42.0
SEA 38 -2.0 u42.0
Bills 2nd AFC East10-4
Browns 4th AFC North3-11

Bills @ Browns Picks & Props

Picks |Consensus |Props |Trends |Top User Picks

BUF vs CLE Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Touchdowns
Josh Allen logo Josh Allen o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+110)
Best Odds
o1.5 +110 bet365
Pick made: 20 hours ago
Jason Logan image
Jason Logan
Senior Betting Analyst
o1.5  +105
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  +110
o1.5  +106
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  +110
These are quick bet odds
o1.5  +107
These are quick bet odds

There’s no denying Allen’s passing prowess and the reigning MVP has connected for two or more touchdowns in nine of his 14 starts this season. He’s thrown for three TDs in each of the past two games. Most QBs of his quality would see the Over on touchdown throws carrying a hefty ask but Allen’s ability to run for the end zone anchors the vig on the Over each week, with juice often sitting at -130 or shorter. Cleveland has given up two passing touchdowns in each its last two outings, with Caleb Williams and Cam Ward doubling up. Allen’s projections range from 1.5 to 1.9 with the majority of models at 1.7 or higher.

Score a Touchdown
Dawson Knox logo Dawson Knox Score a Touchdown (Yes: +300)
Best Odds
 +320 bet365
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
 +265
 +320
 +230
 +260
 +260

Even with Dalton Kincaid back, Dawson Knox has stayed heavily involved near the goal line. He scored twice last week and had another touchdown erased by a penalty in Week 14. Over the last two games, Knox has four targets inside the 10 compared to three for Kincaid (Jackson Hawes has one). Cleveland has allowed just one quarterback rushing touchdown all season, which points to more Josh Allen passing near the goal line in another must-win spot. Kincaid remains the more dynamic playmaker, but it was Knox who played more snaps and ran more routes last week.

Score a Touchdown
James Cook III logo
James Cook III Score a Touchdown (Yes: -129)
Projection 0.74 (Yes)
Best Odds
 -129 Caesars
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -135
 -130
 -135
 -135
 -129
The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.4 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.. James Cook has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).. James Cook's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 77th percentile for running backs.. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.. James Cook's 94.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 84.7% figure.
-129 at Caesars
Passing Yards
Josh Allen logo
Josh Allen u213.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Projection 197.45 (Under)
Best Odds
u213.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 21 hours ago
EV Model Rating
u210.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
u208.5  -110
u213.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
u208.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
u210.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 50.8% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bills offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.50 seconds per snap.. Our trusted projections expect Josh Allen to attempt 30.8 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Receiving Yards
Jerry Jeudy logo
Jerry Jeudy o29.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 35.06 (Over)
Best Odds
o29.5 -113 Caesars
Pick made: 13 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
o29.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o31.5  -110
o29.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o31.5  -110
These are quick bet odds
o29.5  -113
The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.. With an elite 91.8% Route Participation% (88th percentile) this year, Jerry Jeudy places among the wideouts with the biggest workloads in the NFL.. In this game, Jerry Jeudy is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 6.6 targets.. The Bills cornerbacks profile as the 9th-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.
-113 at Caesars
Receiving Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o14.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 17.88 (Over)
Best Odds
o14.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
o14.5  -110
 -
o14.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.. The Buffalo Bills safeties rank as the 2nd-worst collection of safeties in football this year in regard to rushing the passer.
-110 at bet365
Receiving Yards
Dalton Kincaid logo
Dalton Kincaid u36.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 32.91 (Under)
Best Odds
u36.5 -110 bet365
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
 -
u36.5  -110
 -
u36.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
 -
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 50.8% of their chances: the lowest rate on the slate this week.. The predictive model expects the Bills offense to be the slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 30.50 seconds per snap.. Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 3rd-fewest in football.. Dalton Kincaid's 37.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been notably worse this season than it was last season at 43.0.
-110 at bet365
Rushing Yards
Shedeur Sanders logo
Shedeur Sanders o8.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 17.71 (Over)
Best Odds
o8.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 21 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o8.5  -118
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -115
o8.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o10.5  -120
These are quick bet odds
o8.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o61.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Projection 77.9 (Over)
Best Odds
o60.5 -114 FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o61.5  -112
These are quick bet odds
o63.5  -110
o60.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o63.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o61.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.. This year, the shaky Bills run defense has conceded a monstrous 142.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-worst in football.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-114 at FanDuel
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Yards
James Cook III logo
James Cook III o87.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Projection 94.29 (Over)
Best Odds
o84.5 -115 BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Pick made: 15 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o87.5  -111
These are quick bet odds
o86.5  -115
o87.5  -114
These are quick bet odds
o84.5  -115
These are quick bet odds
o86.5  -122
These are quick bet odds
This game's line implies an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 10.5 points.. Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.2% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.. The leading projections forecast James Cook to earn 21.7 carries in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.. After making up 50.9% of his team's run game usage last year, James Cook has played a bigger part in the rushing attack this year, currently accounting for 66.8%.. James Cook's 90.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year indicates a material boost in his rushing prowess over last year's 68.0 figure.
-115 at BetMGM
These are quick bet odds
Rushing Attempts
Quinshon Judkins logo
Quinshon Judkins o16.5 Rushing Attempts (-123)
Projection 18.86 (Over)
Best Odds
o16.5 -123 DraftKings
Pick made: 3 hours ago
EV Model Rating
o16.5  -123
o16.5  -130
o16.5  -136
o16.5  -135
o16.5  -137
Our trusted projections expect the Cleveland Browns to be the 10th-most run-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 41.2% run rate.. The leading projections forecast the Browns offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 26.27 seconds per snap.. As it relates to the safeties' role in stopping the run, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.
-123 at DraftKings

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BUF vs CLE Consensus Picks

More Consensus

Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.
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65% picking Buffalo

65%
35%

Total Picks BUF 357, CLE 192

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105

BUF vs CLE Props

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating
James Cook III
J. Cook III
running back RB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.74
Best Odds
Yes
-129
caesars
caesars
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.74
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. James Cook has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). James Cook's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 77th percentile for running backs. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. James Cook's 94.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 84.7% figure.

James Cook III logo

James Cook III

RB • BUF @ CLE
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.74
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.74

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. James Cook has posted a whopping 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (That may not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage). James Cook's 13.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive volume) puts him in the company of the best in the league: 77th percentile for running backs. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. James Cook's 94.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a noteworthy growth in his receiving ability over last year's 84.7% figure.
Quinshon Judkins
Q. Judkins
running back RB • Cleveland
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Yes
+105
caesars
caesars
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.43
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.

Quinshon Judkins logo

Quinshon Judkins

RB • CLE vs. BUF
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.43
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.43

The Browns are a massive 10.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is forecasted by the projection model to see 131.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-highest number out of all the games this week.
Josh Allen
J. Allen
quarterback QB • Buffalo
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.42
Best Odds
Yes
-120
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.42
Best Odds
Projection Rating

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. Josh Allen's 71.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material growth in his throwing accuracy over last year's 64.7% figure. With an excellent ratio of 1.56 per game (90th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best touchdown passers in football this year. This year, the strong Browns run defense has allowed a paltry 0.79 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 10th-best rate in football.

Josh Allen logo

Josh Allen

QB • BUF @ CLE
Prop: 0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection: 0.42
Prop:
0.5 Score a Touchdown
Projection:
0.42

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics. The Bills offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board. Josh Allen's 71.3% Adjusted Completion% this year indicates a material growth in his throwing accuracy over last year's 64.7% figure. With an excellent ratio of 1.56 per game (90th percentile), Josh Allen ranks among the best touchdown passers in football this year. This year, the strong Browns run defense has allowed a paltry 0.79 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 10th-best rate in football.
Dylan Sampson
D. Sampson
running back RB • Cleveland
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.15
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+425
bet365
bet365
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.15
Best Odds

Jamari Thrash
J. Thrash
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Projection
0.00
(Season avg.)
Best Odds
Yes
+1400
fanduel
fanduel
Prop
Score a Touchdown
Season Avg.
0.00
Best Odds

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

BUF vs CLE Top User Picks

More Picks

User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.
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'charro23' is picking Cleveland to cover (+8.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (13-1-0) and +7420 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'charro23' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

charro23 is #1 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (13-1-0) and +7420 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'tolro234' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +8750 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'tolro234' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

tolro234 is #1 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (11-3-0) and +8750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'spiveytexas61' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'spiveytexas61' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (41.5)

spiveytexas61 is #10 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (9-5-0) and +4550 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'mrsc328' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

mrsc328 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5250 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'mrsc328' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (42.0)

mrsc328 is #10 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (7-2-1) and +5250 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'livelywee55' is picking Cleveland to cover (+8.5)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7050 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'livelywee55' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

livelywee55 is #3 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +7050 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
Total

'johnnyjbd24' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'johnnyjbd24' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

johnnyjbd24 is #3 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-2-0) and +5800 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
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'pittsburghphil' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +6650 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'pittsburghphil' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.5)

pittsburghphil is #5 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +6650 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'Nitetripper' is picking Cleveland to cover (+10.0)

Nitetripper is #6 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (0-0-0) and +5950 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
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'Insiderone777' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
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'gcotton69' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.0)

gcotton69 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'Insiderone777' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Over (42.5)

Insiderone777 is #7 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (10-3-0) and +4750 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
Total

'gcotton69' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (42.0)

gcotton69 is #7 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'csmooth515' is picking Buffalo to cover (-8.5)

csmooth515 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

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BUF
CLE
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-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105
Total

'csmooth515' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

csmooth515 is #8 on picking games that Cleveland is in with a record of (10-4-0) and +5600 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
Total

'wgocts' picks Buffalo vs Cleveland to go Under (41.5)

wgocts is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Total
Over
Under
Total
41.0 -106
41.5 -109
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'wgocts' is picking Buffalo to cover (-10.5)

wgocts is #8 on picking games that Buffalo is in with a record of (7-3-0) and +4700 units on the season.

Spread
BUF
CLE
Spread
-10.0 -119
+10.5 -105

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