The NFL Conference Championships take place this Sunday, with the Broncos hosting the Patriots in the afternoon and the Rams facing the Seahawks immediately after.
The Pats and the Rams are led by the two MVP favorites in Drake Maye and Matthew Stafford, and my NFL picks are betting on both quarterbacks to have big games.
Here are my best free NFL player props for January 25.
NFL Conference Championship prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Drake Maye |
Over 225.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Zach Allen |
To record a Sack | +152 |
| Marvin Mims Jr. |
Over 2.5 rushing yards | +106 |
 Matthew Stafford |
Over 35.5 pass attempts | -113 |
 Kenneth Walker III |
Over 85.5 rushing yards | -114 |
Conference Championship Best Bets & Top NFL Player Props
Prop pick: Drake Maye Over 225.5 passing yards
Temps will be freezing in Denver on Sunday, but with barely any wind and no precipitation, don't expect it to affect Drake Maye. The New England Patriots' superstar QB has played well in cold weather and has thrown for more than 250 yards in 13 of his last 18 contests.
The Denver Broncos' pass defense has regressed over their last five games, with their only good performances coming against backups Trey Lance and Chris Oladokun.
Trevor Lawrence and Jordan Love passed for more than 270 yards against them, while Josh Allen had 283 yards despite throwing to a WR corps that had been decimated by injuries.
Prop pick: Zach Allen to record a Sack
Maye has been sacked a whopping 57 times this season due to his tendency to hold on to the ball when his receivers can't get separation.
He'll face constant pressure on Sunday from Broncos Pro Bowl defensive lineman Zach Allen. The 285-pound monster led all defensive linemen with 73 pressures during the regular season and has picked up at least half a sack in nine of his last 14 games.
Allen lines up primarily over the left guard, which gives him a favorable matchup against rookie Jared Wilson. Wilson is the weak link in New England's offensive line and has surrendered six sacks in the regular season and playoffs.
Prop pick: Marvin Mims Over 2.5 rushing yards
This is the time of the year when coaches may as well empty out their playbook. Denver will have backup QB Jarrett Stidham under center, so expect Sean Payton to use gadget plays to keep New England's defense on its heels.
Marvin Mims Jr. had eight catches for 93 yards last week, and Payton will look to get the ball into the hands of the speedy wideout on Sunday. Mims hasn't logged a rush attempt in his last three games, but before that, he had a carry in 10 straight games, rushing for 3+ yards in seven of those contests.
The Patriots have a stingy run defense but are vulnerable on misdirection runs, allowing a league-high 8.5 yards per rush on counters.
Prop pick: Matthew Stafford Over 35.5 pass attempts
The Seattle Seahawks' stop unit has been elite against the run, ranking first in the league in defensive rush EPA and success rate. If the Los Angeles Rams want to move the ball in this game, they'll have to do it through the air.
Thankfully, they have MVP favorite and former Super Bowl champion, Matthew Stafford, under center.
Stafford has thrown at least 38 passes in each of his last six games. That includes Week 16 at Lumen Field when he completed 29 of 49 passes (43 in regulation) for 457 yards.
Prop pick: Kenneth Walker III Over 85.5 rushing yards
Kenneth Walker III rushed for 1027 yards on 221 carries during the regular season despite Zach Charbonnet cutting into his touches with 184 carries. With Charbonnet tearing his ACL in the divisional round, Walker turned into a workhorse and rumbled for 116 yards.
The Rams have struggled against the run over the last month. They surrendered 160 rushing yards to Chicago last week and were gashed for 219 yards on the ground in Week 17 against Atlanta.
When these teams previously clashed in Week 16, Walker rushed for 100 yards on just 11 carries, with Charbonnet adding another 32 yards on nine rush attempts.
NFL Divisional Round prop betting card
- Maye o225.5 pass yards (-114)
- Allen to record a Sack (+152)
- Mims o2.5 rush yards (+106)
- Stafford o35.5 pass attempts (-113)
- Walker o85.5 rush yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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