The Pittsburgh Pirates and St. Louis Cardinals wrap up a three-game series this afternoon with the rubber match at 1:15 p.m. ET at Busch Stadium.
My Pirates vs Cardinals predictions are eyeing Pittsburgh to grab another victory in the finale with Braxton Ashcraft on the hill.
Read more in my MLB picks for Thursday, May 21.
Who will win Pirates vs Cardinals today: Pirates moneyline (-122)
The Pittsburgh Pirates shut down the St. Louis Cardinals on Wednesday, winning 7-0 behind a four-hit game from rookie Konnor Griffin. The Bucs' pitching staff allowed just five hits, containing a Cards offense that has struggled with consistency. Braxton Ashcraft takes the mound today for the visitors, and he's been impressive.
The right-hander owns a 3.09 ERA, and that lowers to 2.16 on the road across four outings. Coincidentally enough, all six earned runs he's allowed away from PNC Park were to the Cards last month in a tough start. But Ashcraft has improved immensely since that outing, compiling a 2.11 ERA across three May appearances. His last road start was a seven-inning, one-run outing against the San Francisco Giants.
As for the Cards, they hand Dustin May the ball. He owns a 4.50 ERA at home this season, and Pittsburgh's lineup has hit him around. They're batting .400 across 40 at-bats, and the Pirates are one of the top offensive ball clubs in the big leagues, averaging 4.9 runs per game. The visitors will keep it rolling here.
COVERS INTEL: May owns a BABIP of .338 so far this season, compared to .298 in 2025. 
Pirates vs Cardinals Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 runs (-108)
Four of the last five meetings between the Pirates and Cardinals have cashed the Over, and Wednesday's matchup finished just below today's total. While I do expect Ashcraft to have a solid outing, the Cards have hit him around before, and they could do some damage.
As for May, he's had minimal luck against Pittsburgh's lineup, with several key players swinging it well against him. The right-hander also has a career-worst 52% hard-hit rate, and the Bucs have scored 13 runs across their last two contests.
The St. Louis bullpen has also been poor, compiling a 4.53 ERA, and it surrendered four earned runs on Wednesday.
- ML/RL bets: 14-11, +3.90 units
- Over/Under bets: 14-11, +1.16 units
Pirates vs Cardinals odds
- Moneyline: Pirates -122 | Cardinals +117
- Run line: Pirates -1.5 (+138) | Cardinals +1.5 (-144)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-108) | Under 7.5 (+104)
Pirates vs Cardinals trend
The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the Run Line in 28 of their last 45 away games (+8.20 Units / 13% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cardinals.
How to watch Pirates vs Cardinals and game info
| Location | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date | Thursday, May 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 1:15 p.m. ET |
| TV | SportsNet Pittsburgh, Cardinals.TV |
| Pirates starting pitcher | Braxton Ashcraft (2-2, 3.09 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher | Dustin May (3-4, 4.81 ERA) |
Pirates vs Cardinals latest injuries
Pirates vs Cardinals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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