Tempo vs Lynx Prediction, Picks & Odds for Tonight’s WNBA Game

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst 21+ years betting experience
Updated: May 21, 2026 , 10:52 AM ET • 4 min read

Natasha Howard is picking up the slack for a thin Lynx frontcourt and scoring the most points in the paint in the WNBA. Tonight's opponent, Toronto, just so happens to allow the most PITP and Jason Logan sees a ton of value in Howard's scoring prop.

WNBA

Match starts: 7 hrs
TOR
59 %
MIN
41 %
EXPERT PICK - PROP
Natasha Howard o15.5  Points Scored (-105) Natasha Howard o15.5 Points Scored (-105)
Read Analysis
Natasha Howard Minnesota Lynx WNBA
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Minnesota Lynx forward Natasha Howard (1) shoots against Chicago Sky center Kamilla Cardoso (10) in the third quarter.

The Minnesota Lynx are rested and ready for the road-weary Toronto Tempo in their first ever meeting tonight.

Minnesota has been off since Sunday while Toronto continues a slog of away games, with this matchup being their fourth straight road outings in seven days.
 
Our Tempo vs. Lynx predictions see a sizable advantage for Natasha Howard inside and my WNBA picks call for Minnesota’s veteran center to go hard in the paint against a thin Toronto frontcourt.

Tempo vs Lynx prediction

Tempo vs Lynx best bet: Natasha Howard Over 15.5 points (-105)

The Minnesota Lynx are missing bigs Napheesa Collier, Dorka Juhasz, and Emma Cechova, leaving Natasha Howard to pick up the slack. 

She's done just that, especially in the past two games. Howard has attempted 24 collective FGAs for outputs of 17 and 26 points. She's been dominant inside, leading the WNBA with 14.0 points in the paint.

The Toronto Tempo are missing Temi Fagbenle, Nyara Sabally, and Isabelle Harrison. That lack of size has Toronto getting bullied for a league-worst 46.4 PITP, including 52 PITP to Phoenix Tuesday.

Howard’s projections lean to 16 points. I see a much higher ceiling.

Covers COVERS INTEL: Natasha Howard’s role in the offense is spiking since Emma Cechova’s knee injury. She’s 10th in FGAs over the past two games (14.5) and shooting 65% in those outings. Her usage shot up to 11th highest (28.9%) among qualified players with at least 100 minutes.

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Tempo vs Lynx same-game parlay

Toronto has won two of its last three outings but injuries and fatigue add up for the Tempo tonight. Toronto is missing plenty of key pieces and will get tossed around by a physical Lynx lineup.

Minnesota has enjoyed time off to rest and practice. And with Sandy Brondello coming to town, you know Lynx head coach Cheryl Reeve will be ready.

Natasha Howard is getting a ton of touches with Collier, Cechova and Juhasz out. Her minutes and shot volume are spiking the past two games. At 6-foot-2, she’s battled bigger forwards and catches a break against the Tempo’s injury-shortened frontcourt. She’s tops in points in the paint, which just so happens to be Toronto’s biggest weakness.

Marina Mabrey was Toronto’s top choice in the expansion draft for a reason. She’s carried over her scoring touch from the Unrivaled season to the 2026 WNBA campaign, dropping 26, 27, and 30 points in three of her first five games.

Mabrey’s usage is fifth highest in the league among qualified players with at least 100 minutes and she’s shooting 20 FGAs a night when avoiding foul trouble.

Tempo vs Lynx SGP

  • Lynx Moneyline
  • Natasha Howard Over 15.5 points
  • Marina Maybrey Over 19.5 points

Tempo vs Lynx first basket scorer: Natasha Howard (+700)

Howard started the scoring for Minnesota against Chicago on Monday and actually had two looks at the basket before that make, missing a layup and having another one turned away from towering Sky center Kamilla Cardoso. She won’t face that size versus Toronto and the Lynx attack inside to start the scoring tonight.

Jason Logan's 2026 Transparency Record
  • Best bet: 2-2, -0.26 units
  • SGP: 1-3, +0.9 units
  • First basket: 0-4, -4.0 units

Tempo vs Lynx odds

  • Spread: Toronto +6.5 | Minnesota -6.5
  • Moneyline: Toronto +220 | Minnesota -270
  • Over/Under: Over 173 | Under 173

Tempo vs Lynx trend

Toronto has topped the total in the first three games of this road trip, boasting an offensive rating of 123.6 (highest in the league in that span) while also lugging the second worst defensive rating (117.3) in those games. Those games have seen an average of almost 195 combined points. Find more WNBA betting trends.

How to watch Tempo vs Lynx

Location Target Center, Minneapolis, MN
Date Thursday, May 21, 2026
Tip-off 8:00 p.m. ET
TV TSN, Victory+

Tempo vs Lynx latest injuries

Tempo: Temi Fagbenle (Out), Nyara Sabally (Doubtful), Isabelle Harrison (Out), Julie Allemand G (Out).
Lynx: Napheesa Collier (Out), Dorka Juhasz (Out), Emma Cechova (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst Jason Logan has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.

Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet.

He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jason's first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns.

On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast at stations like WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio, Jason's analysis has also been featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers' flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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