The Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins wrap up a four-game NL East set at loanDepot Park on Thursday, May 21, and I’ve got a pair of MLB picks for the series finale.
My top Braves vs. Marlins predictions call for Atlanta to eke out a low-scoring win over Miami tonight.
Who will win Braves vs Marlins today: Braves moneyline (-136)
Atlanta Braves starter Spencer Strider has allowed a single run on just four hits while holding opposing hitters to a pedestrian 27.3% hard-hit rate across his past two starts, and I’m anticipating him keeping the good times rolling against a ho-hum Miami Marlins lineup.
The Marlins rank 19th in wOBA against right-handed arms, and Miami also ranks 20th in both overall ISO and xwOBA over the past two weeks.
Of course, Atlanta has been a force at the dish all season and ranks second in both runs per game and wOBA against righties.
COVERS INTEL: Braves lefty Spencer Strider has a 1.13 ERA while holding the Marlins to a .600 OPS at loanDepot Park.
Braves vs Marlins Over/Under pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
In addition to Strider sliding back into elite form, Miami righty Sandy Alcantara has also been excellent this season and allowed two earned runs or fewer in seven of 10 starts for a solid 3.53 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 3.31 xERA.
As a result, I’m anticipating the righty keeping the Atlanta bats off balance enough to keep this total Under the number Thursday night.
The Braves have dipped to just 4.5 runs per game with a 14th-ranked xwOBA over the past two weeks, after all.
- ML/RL bets: 21-12, +10.68 units
- Over/Under bets: 12-8, +3.37 units
Braves vs Marlins odds
- Moneyline: Atlanta -140 | Miami +120
- Run line: Atlanta -1.5 (+125) | Miami +1.5 (-145)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-115) | Under 7.5 (-105)
Braves vs Marlins trend
The Atlanta Braves have won 35 of their last 50 away games (+21.75 Units / 36% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Braves vs. Marlins.
How to watch Braves vs Marlins and game info
| Location | LoanDepot Park, Miami, FL |
| Date | Thursday, May 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 6:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | BravesVision, Marlins.TV |
| Braves starting pitcher | Spencer Strider (1-0, 2.45 ERA) |
| Marlins starting pitcher | Sandy Alcantara (3-2, 3.53 ERA) |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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