Logically, Wisconsin Badgers head coach Luke Fickell isn’t on the hot seat just yet—but his third year in Madison isn’t exactly inspiring confidence.
An upset over the Michigan Wolverines would quiet some of the doubts, but my Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions don’t see the Badgers putting up much of a fight.
Find out more in my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Wisconsin vs Michigan prediction
Wisconsin vs Michigan best bet: Michigan -16.5 (-124)
Advanced numbers are perfectly comfortable with this spread. As many sportsbooks cross a key number to -17.5, advanced numbers might even worry that it is too steep.
First of all, that movement is reason enough to justify this bet. That juice is worth the squeeze of a whole point across -17.
But second of all, advanced numbers do not quite comprehend certain factors.
Had an unexpected day (two days).
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 1, 2025
Saw @statsowar post this, opened it & then closed my laptop for 12 hours. Opening my laptop now, obviously this is still my screen. Why'd I want to look at it?
Probably b/c of my reactions column two Sundays ago. Numbers don't measure the Q-word. https://t.co/EZLiYZyOy5 pic.twitter.com/Dp0RlrRmm4
The surface-level problems are obvious: Wisconsin has no viable offense, one that effectively moves backward whenever it tries to pass the ball, and that flaw alone renders almost any college football team toothless in 2025.
Defensively, the Badgers are good but not great, and opponents are able and willing to cut Wisconsin to the ground via moderate pass after moderate pass after moderate pass.
Those worries are enough to ponder Michigan in this spot. The Wolverines’ defense is excellent against the rush, so it should stop the Badgers in their tracks. And while Michigan’s passing game remains an exercise in development with Bryce Underwood, a mid-range passing game could fit his eyes this week.
But then add in the physicality Michigan should hit Wisconsin with. As the Badgers’ season collapses and Fickell has to massage his reputation everywhere, including in the locker room, this roster is unlikely to respond well to a punishing game.
This very well may be tied at halftime, only to see the Wolverines win the second half 21-0.
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Wisconsin vs Michigan same-game parlay
As the Badgers give up explosive rushes, few players in the country are more equipped to capitalize on that than Michigan running back Justice Haynes.
Nonetheless, this Under should cash simply because Wisconsin's offense is that bad.
The Badgers’ team total is set at 12.5, a hook too low to take with confidence, but thought was given to it.
Wisconsin vs Michigan 3-leg SGP
- Michigan -16.5
- Justice Haynes anytime touchdown
- Under 43.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Dual-Threat Delight
Bryce Underwood did not rush for a touchdown in his first two starts. In fact, he took just two rushes for four yards, sacks excluded.
But once Michigan suffered a loss, the Wolverines started running their star freshman quarterback more often, taking 16 carries for 181 yards and three touchdowns in the last two games.
Wisconsin vs Michigan 4-leg SGP
- Michigan -16.5
- Justice Haynes anytime touchdown
- Under 43.5
- Bryce Underwood anytime touchdown
Wisconsin vs Michigan game predictions
Wisconsin vs Michigan moneyline prediction
If Michigan loses this, Sherrone Moore will deserve a bounty of criticism. Wisconsin simply does not have the offensive playmakers to make this interesting.
Wisconsin vs Michigan spread prediction
To pull from a column after Wisconsin’s last game, two weeks ago, “Luke Fickell has been in Madison for only two full seasons. But those have not been good seasons... to this point, he has gone 14-15.
Getting blown out by Maryland is about as low as it gets in the Big Ten, simply because it seems incomprehensible that anyone would lose badly to Purdue or Northwestern. …
“If Fickell is not fired, then bet Michigan up to -19.5 in two weeks.”
Wisconsin vs Michigan Over/Under prediction
The Badgers have cashed two Overs in four games, both of those coming via impressive passing games from their opponents. Michigan lacks that.
The Wolverines have cashed three Overs, two of them caused by opponents showing impressive success rates through the air. Wisconsin may be physically incapable of that.
Expect this to be an easy Under, barring multiple defensive or special teams scores.
Wisconsin vs Michigan odds
- Spread: Wisconsin +16.5 | Michigan -16.5
- Moneyline: Wisconsin +660 | Michigan -1050
- Over/Under: Over 43.5 | Under 43.5
Wisconsin vs Michigan trend to know
The Badgers have scored a total of 24 points in their last two games, falling short of the spread by an average of 15.25 points per contest. Find more college football betting trends for Wisconsin vs Michigan.
How to watch Wisconsin vs Michigan
| Location | Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor, MI |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff1:00 | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Wisconsin vs Michigan latest injuries
Wisconsin vs Michigan weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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