A surging Texas team heads to Death Valley on Saturday night to take on a spiralling LSU squad at Tiger Stadium at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC).
The Tigers are 4.5-point home favorites, but my Texas vs. LSU predictions and college football picks back Arch Manning and the Longhorns' defense to make serious noise on the road.
Texas vs LSU predictions
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Early Texas vs LSU spread pick: Texas +4.5
Don't look now, but Texas is once again playing like a college football national championship odds contender. With the Longhorns expected to be their healthiest in weeks, including having projected top-five pick Colin Simmons fully back, I like Steve Sarkisian's squad to cover +2.5 or better on the road.
Since Texas' upset loss to Florida threatened Arch Manning's security as Sarkisian's QB1, the Longhorns have outscored opponents 99-50, with Manning accounting for nine touchdowns. That includes Texas covering the spread in all three wins and beating two ranked teams (Missouri, Ole Miss).
Meanwhile, just as LSU looked like it might make a College Football Playoff push after following up its OT loss to Kentucky with two blowout wins, the Tigers were hammered at home by Alabama in the Saban Bowl. In three games this season against currently ranked teams, LSU is 0-3 ATS, losing all three games as a favorite.
If Texas' offense continues to be efficient with Manning at the helm, LSU might lose again. The Tigers are susceptible to the run (57th in EPA per rush), and Longhorns running back Raleek Brown has been their X-factor lately, with 346 yards from scrimmage and three TDs during the three-game winning streak.
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Early Texas vs LSU total pick: Under 45.5
Pitting two quarterbacks with a penchant for head-scratching turnovers against two of the most disruptive defenses in the country is a recipe for a low-scoring game. With neither Manning nor Sam Leavitt being at their best in their biggest games, I like the Under at 45.5 or better.
Texas has the best defense LSU has faced this season, ranking No. 1 in net adjusted EPA per play, No. 5 in success rate (36.6%), and No. 11 in havoc rate (20%). The Longhorns are also likely to have Simmons back in full force. He returned last week in a limited capacity, but over the first six games of the season he racked up 26 pressures, 16 TFLs, and 10.5 sacks.
Leavitt has struggled against pressure in LSU's biggest games this season, with a 21.1% pressure-to-sack rate against Ole Miss, Kentucky, and Alabama. Manning has been just as sporadic against strong defenses, too.
Manning has the 11th-highest turnover-worthy play rate (4%) and fifth-highest pressure-to-sack rate in the P4 (27.2%), and LSU's defense is third nationally in sacks (36) and fourth in havoc rate (22.2%). The Tigers will create plenty of problems for Manning.
Texas vs LSU odds
- Texas vs LSU spread: LSU -4.5
- Texas vs LSU moneyline: Texas 39%, LSU 61%
- Texas vs LSU Over/Under: 45.5
How to watch Texas vs LSU
- Date: Saturday, Nov. 14, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Baton Rouge, La.
- Venue: Tiger Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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