Finally, the national title picture changed. No one with championship hopes should be comfortable with a second loss, especially not when that loss comes to a comedy like UCLA or a tragedy like Florida.
Those losses felled Penn State and Texas on the national championship odds board, but Miami’s domination of Florida State moved the Hurricanes up into the second tier, still behind Alabama and well behind Ohio State and Oregon, but in the mix with the Tide and Georgia.
However, …
CFB Week 6 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to the shifting title odds. The 12-team College Football Playoff lessens the value of betting these things now.
When we get to December, a moneyline rollover on your preferred champion will pay close to or better than the futures odds right now. And you will have that much more information at your disposal.
Douglas's advice: There are two teams with undeniable “win-out” paths as their only ways into the Playoff, Notre Dame and Penn State. Instead of betting them at +2500 and +3000 right now, respectively, take your title bet amount and put it toward a moneyline rollover. The 11-game run would pay off better than those numbers.
Do not overreact to the relative shootout between Air Force and Navy, clearing their already lofty total of 51.5 in a 34-31 Midshipmen win.
The two service academies threw the kitchen sink at each other. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath faked a handoff to BACKUP QUARTERBACK Braxton Woodson before taking off for a 59-yard score. Does anything else need to be acknowledged here?
These two programs despise each other.
It is part of the glory of college football that the NFL will never come near conjuring.
These are not their offenses moving forward.
Douglas’s advice: Take the opening Under in Navy’s trip to Temple. It should be in the mid-50s. The Midshipmen are not only ripe for a letdown moment, but they now must face a quality Temple rush defense that is well-coached. Navy will get its repetitive gains, but it should be deprived of explosive plays. The game will slow. If the spread is beyond +14.5, also side with Temple there.
Meanwhile, worry about Air Force at UNLV. Again, it is a letdown moment, and the advanced metrics may give the Falcons a relatively undeserved boost. Well, not undeserved, but perhaps not applicable. Throwing the kitchen sink at Navy is not exactly a sustainable strategy. Air Force is not as good, on a week-to-week basis, as was seen on Saturday. A Rebels ticket at about -7 would be preferred.
CFB Week 6 reactions to make
Do overreact to Texas’s loss. The Longhorns are scuffling, and another attacking defense awaits Arch Manning.
Florida’s defense has never been the problem. The Gators have been in games solely because of their defense. It is not a terrible sign to struggle against it.
But Texas has struggled too much this season, and that offense is now clearly in its own head. The Longhorns' offense has disappointed in at least three of its five games, and putting up points against San Jose State and Sam Houston State did not even fill that locker room with confidence.
Douglas’s advice: Bet the Texas vs. Oklahoma Under if it remains above 42. The Texas vs. Florida total fell by four points, and that game hit its Over only because Florida’s offense shocked the world. With the Sooners presumably missing star quarterback John Mateer, the Red River total will fall and fall quickly.
Meanwhile, also consider the Florida vs. Texas A&M Under. Opening at 44.5 feels low, but grab a 45 if you see one in the wild. The Aggies struggled to put up points against Mississippi State. That matchup next weekend could become an absolute rock fight.
Do overreact to Penn State’s loss, but with caution. Its opponent next weekend is Northwestern. Two such duds in a row would be unfathomable. Well, unfathomable until it happens. But anyway.
Unless Penn State actually loses at home to Northwestern, James Franklin’s job is safe. That is why coaches seek buyouts north of $50 million.
Douglas’s advice: When talking heads muse about the temperature of Franklin’s seat, know they are not being serious about college football. Find someone else to listen to.
Do overreact to Wisconsin’s ambivalence. Shocking as it may be, Luke Fickell may be letting go of the rope.
Fickell was not wrong in knowing his team would not beat Michigan when trailing late, aside from the fact that this is college football, and you should never assume there will not be chaos.
But Fickell clearly assumed his team was not capable of such chaos.
Luke Fickell does not believe in timeouts.
— Covers (@Covers) October 4, 2025
Bold strategy. pic.twitter.com/uwPYj4oKef
To then go the postgame press conference and say it is “going to take a hell of a lot of effort, a hell of a lot of toughness and most importantly a hell of a lot of competitive spirit” to rebound from this 2-3 start and 0-2 start in the Big Ten, that is an awfully passive aggressive way of saying your locker room lacks effort, lacks toughness and most importantly lacks competitive spirit.
What Fickell and Wisconsin Badgers fans are failing to remember is the truest axiom in college football: It can always get worse.
As bad as a 2-3 start feels, how do you think Oklahoma State felt coming off last season’s 0-9 Big 12 record? It could never get worse than that, right? Wrong. The Cowboys will not match last year’s three wins this season. North Carolina was livid with a 6-7 record. How good do you think that sounds to the Tar Heels now?
I wonder if Bubba Cunningham — who was trying to hire the likes of Matt Campbell or Jon Sumrall — ever just texts the board chair “GREAT HIRE, BUD.” https://t.co/zB35dRqJS7
— Andy Staples (@Andy_Staples) October 4, 2025
In fact, it can be quickly argued that Oklahoma State is already putting together its second-worst season since 1951, and there is time to fall further in those rankings. North Carolina is lost in its worst season since 1989, and again, there is plenty of time to extend that date further back.
Douglas’s advice: When your locker room is losing focus and you admit it publicly, nothing should sound worse than a visit from Iowa. When the conversation around your program is, “Can it get worse?”, the answer is always yes, especially when you are about to face the meat-grinder designed by Kirk Ferentz. Bet the Hawkeyes up to -6.5, as miserable as that sounds in most of life. Camp Randall could become Iowa fans early on.
Rapid fire: More Week 7 and beyond bets to target
- Virginia has a clear path to the ACC title game. It is a perk of the schedule, a perk that comes from conferences expanding to bloated status. It looks like the Cavaliers have a conference loss, but their game at North Carolina State was actually a non-conference game, again a result of the bloated size of the ACC. Virginia’s biggest worry is a trip to Duke on Nov. 15. Even with a loss there, the Cavaliers should meet Miami in the ACC title game. At +900 to win the ACC, bet Virginia. There will be plenty of space to hedge in the ACC title game. The Cavaliers would have to be greater than three-touchdown underdogs for that ticket not to then hold value.
- Kansas State should have won this weekend. And that technicality-caused loss is going to sting even more if Dylan Edwards is again hurt, because the Wildcats struggle os much without the backfield dynamo. “He’s been battling something with his foot or his ankle, so we had to use some other guys,” Kansas State head coach Chris Klieman said after Edwards had just 10 carries for 26 yards at Baylor. TCU should open as a short favorite, no higher than -6.5, at Manhattan next week. Take the Horned Frogs because it is increasingly unlikely we see a healthy Edwards in 2025.
- New Pittsburgh starting quarterback Mason Heintschel exploded in his debut with 323 yards and four touchdowns on 30-of-41 passing in a 48-7 win against Boston College. Ignore it. Take Florida State up to -10.5 next week. The Seminoles just held one of the most explosive passing attacks in the country to 28 points. They will neutralize Heintschel, especially now that there is some tape on him.
- Western Carolina quarterback Taron Dickens completed his first 46 passes on Saturday, and still the Catamounts needed a last-minute field goal to beat the double-digit underdog Wofford, now 0-5 on the season. When that kind of performance still yields a disappointing day, misery lies ahead. When FCS lines open on Thursday or Friday, grab yourself some Furman against Western Carolina. The Paladins will do what the Terriers could not.
- Fade Kentucky’s offense, but do not inherently fade the Wildcats the rest of the season. Only their offense, especially on Oct. 18 against Texas and Oct. 25 against Tennessee. But otherwise bet full-game Unders. Avoid the spreads. SEC teams see how feckless the Wildcats are. They will begin running vanilla game plans against Kentucky, content to grind to 31-7 or even 24-7 wins. Kentucky’s offense will never do much this season. Your local high school defense might stop it. But SEC opponents are going to find an air of indifference about those games as a whole.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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