Latest National Championship Odds & Week 6 Reactions: Down Go the Longorns and Nittany Lions

Following Saturday's upsets of Texas and Penn State, Douglas Farmer breaks down how the national title odds have shifted in the wake of the two shock losses.

Douglas Farmer - Betting Analyst at Covers
Douglas Farmer • Betting Analyst
Oct 4, 2025 • 19:57 ET • 4 min read
Arch Manning Texas Longhorns NCAAF
Photo By - Imagn Images. Texas quarterback Arch Manning (16).

All season, four teams have stood above the rest of the field in the national championship oddsOhio State, Oregon, Texas, and Penn State have been a clear cut above, in that order, with the Buckeyes the biggest favorites.

Even with previous losses, the Longhorns and the Nittany Lions are stuck in that top tier, a result of their talented rosters and their clear paths to the College Football Playoff.

Those paths are clear no longer.

Latest National Championship Odds

Team FanDuel
Ohio State Ohio State +440
Oregon Oregon +500
Alabama Alabama +700
Georgia Georgia +950
Miami Miami +1100
Texas Texas +1600
Mississippi Mississippi +1700
Oklahoma Oklahoma +1800
Texas A&M Texas A&M +1800
Notre Dame Notre Dame +2200

Updated National Championship Odds: Ohio State and Oregon Now Alone

By losing second games against disappointing opponents on Saturday, both Texas and Penn State torpedoed their chances of making the Playoff and thus their chances of winning the national title.

The Nittany Lions’ loss to 0-4 UCLA was unquestionably more embarrassing, but the Longhorns’ falling to Florida is nearly as costly.

Exiting last week’s loss to Oregon, Penn State sat at +750 to win the national championship at FanDuel, right alongside Texas, sitting around there since its season-opening loss to Ohio State.

As of Saturday evening, the Nittany Lions are now +3000, while the Longhorns are at +1600. Ohio State (+440) and Oregon (+500) remain atop the odds board, now with Alabama (+700) and Georgia (+950) forming a second tier.

Texas can thank the opportunities for big wins remaining on its schedule for its edge on Penn State. The only notable game remaining ahead of the Nittany Lions is against Ohio State, an outright must-win.

The Longhorns, though, can still notch up to four top-25 wins. Going 3-1 against Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M would at least give them an argument for Playoff inclusion, though not a good one.

Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Douglas Farmer
Betting Analyst

Douglas Farmer spends his days thinking about college football and his nights thinking about the NBA. His betting habits and coverage follow that same pattern. He covered Notre Dame football for various outlets from 2008 to 2024, most notably spending eight seasons as NBC Sports’ beat writer on the Irish. That was also when his gambling focus took off. Knowing there were veteran beat writers with three decades more experience than he had, Douglas found his niche by best recognizing Notre Dame’s standing in each year’s national landscape, a complex tapestry most easily understood and remembered via betting odds.

In 2021, that interest created a freelance opportunity with Covers, a role that eventually led to Douglas joining the company full-time in 2023. In the fall, Douglas will place five or six dozen bets each week, a disproportionate amount via BetRivers because the operator tends to have lines slightly different than the rest of the market. The same can be said of Circa Sports’ futures markets.

While Douglas is an avid NBA fan and covers the league throughout the year, the vast majority of his bets are on college football, because that is the biggest key to sports betting: Know what you do not know.

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