Michigan's ugly performance in its controversial Week 1 win forced this Week 2 spread against visiting Oklahoma to move a full touchdown.
The Wolverines are now fetching 5.5 points at home, and Oklahoma vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks aren't so sure that will be enough when these programs kick off at 12 p.m. ET at Michigan Stadium.
Oklahoma vs Michigan predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Oklahoma vs Michigan spread pick: Oklahoma -5.5
Let's recap Michigan's offense against Western Michigan in Week 1: Bryce Underwood completed 12 of 22 passes, the running backs ran for 3.69 yards per carry, and the Wolverines put up 229 total yards if you exclude the Hail Mary.
That's just not going to fly against what looks to be a real sleeper in the SEC. Underwood's incompetence under center is one thing, but not being able to control the game on the ground says more about how much this offense will struggle against tougher competition.
Oklahoma ranked second in the nation in opponent yards per carry (2.39) and third in opponent rushing yards per game (77.3) in 2025. On offense, John Mateer is 100% recovered from last season's hand injury and threw for 225 yards and three touchdowns in OU's 51-0 Week 1 win over UTEP.
Simply put, Michigan's offense needed to be in much better form for this to be an even fight, and I have more faith in Oklahoma to move the ball despite being on the road. Lay the number at anything below a touchdown.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS35' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $35 — including college football!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early Oklahoma vs Michigan total pick: Under 43.5
The key to this Under is how well Michigan's defense played. This is a major step-up in competition, but the Wolverines' defense allowed just four field goals, one of which came following an Underwood lost fumble late in the fourth quarter.
Even if I expect Oklahoma to have more success on offense, this won't turn into a shootout. An Oklahoma lead will eventually force Underwood to throw, and that has proven to rarely be a successful endeavor.
I'm eyeing a 21-13 or 24-13 type scoreline and would play the Under down to 42.5.
Oklahoma vs Michigan odds
- Oklahoma vs Michigan spread: Michigan +5.5
- Oklahoma vs Michigan moneyline: Oklahoma 67%, Michigan 33%
- Oklahoma vs Michigan Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Oklahoma vs Michigan
- Oklahoma vs Michigan matchup
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026, 12 p.m. ET
- City: Ann Arbor, Michigan
- Venue: Michigan Stadium
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
