For the 73rd time since 1894, Iowa State and Iowa will do battle for the Cy-Hawk Trophy, with this year's edition set for Saturday, Sept. 12 at 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC) at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa.
Despite the Cyclones winning three of the last four Cy-Hawk games, the Hawkeyes are a 13.5-point favorite, and my Iowa State vs. Iowa predictions and college football picks back the home team to run wild against their rival.
Iowa State vs Iowa predictions
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Early Iowa State vs Iowa spread pick: Iowa -13.5
For the first time since 2015 (a 31-17 Iowa win), Iowa State will have someone other than Matt Campbell patrolling the sidelines. This is new Cyclones head coach Jimmy Rogers' first Cy-Hawk game, and he's leaning heavily on Group of Six and FCS transfers.
The former South Dakota State and Washington State head coach's roster is ranked outside the Top 100 in returning production (45%), and he's starting more than a dozen first-year transfers from non-Power Four programs.
The lack of continuity could be a huge problem against Iowa, which has one of the best offensive lines in the country and a playmaker corps featuring budding stars in Kamari Moulton, DJ Vonnahme, and Tony Diaz.
Kirk Ferentz has won 14 of the last 22 Cy-Hawk games, and with Iowa State dealing with so much change, I would take his Hawkeyes to cover -14.5 or better.
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Early Iowa State vs Iowa total pick: Under 40.5
Iowa State's offense has plenty of questions, especially after totaling just 303 yards and averaging under four yards per carry in Week 1 against an FCS program (Southeast Missouri).
The Cyclones are ranked 84th on offense by SP+, and QB Jaylen Raynor has struggled in his career against Power Four programs.
In four starts against P4 teams at Arkansas State, Raynor committed 11 turnover-worthy plays and threw just one touchdown — the Red Wolves averaged 13.7 points in those four games.
Phil Parker's defense is ranked 11th by SP+ and should hold the Cyclones to 13 or fewer points. And while Iowa's run game is potent, the Hawkeyes are still splitting reps at QB between Hank Brown and Jeremy Hecklinski. I wouldn't expect those two to lead Iowa to more than 27.
But I wouldn't take the Under on a number lower than 40.5
Iowa State vs Iowa odds
- Iowa State vs Iowa spread: Iowa -13.5
- Iowa State vs Iowa moneyline: Iowa State 17%, Iowa 83%
- Iowa State vs Iowa Over/Under: 40.5
How to watch Iowa State vs Iowa
- Iowa State vs Iowa matchup
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: Iowa City, Iowa
- Venue: Kinnick Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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