The Miami Hurricanes can bellyache all they want, as can the Texas Longhorns, but the College Football Playoff selection committee has erased their hopes of making the Playoff, something rather clear to anyone willing to think logically over the last four days.
The latest committee rankings slotted Texas at No. 13, up three spots, and Miami at No. 12, both on the outside of the Playoff field and with no genuine path into the bracket.
Their College Football National Championship odds already reflected that misery. Again, this was always the most likely scenario for Tuesday night and should not surprise anyone.
College Football Playoff odds
Biggest Riser
No, this is not Notre Dame. The Irish odds stayed steady at +1000 at FanDuel both before and after the rankings were released Tuesday night, another point of data that this would always be the case. Miami was never jumping Notre Dame in the rankings this weekend. Whether the Hurricanes should have been ranked behind the Irish at all is an entirely different argument; the only pertinent argument was whether they would jump them, and that never made any sense.
Instead, Indiana’s odds shortened to +370 after the rankings release, from +400 beforehand, while Georgia’s shortened to +750, from +800 beforehand.
The best guess to explain those quick changes is the likelihood that one of them ends up in the No. 3 slot, possibly facing the winner of No. 6 Mississippi vs. No. 11, either Virginia or the American champion. But even that may be a misguided guess, because if Alabama upsets Georgia in the SEC title game, the entire middle section of the bracket will be a bit uncertain.
Folks, Miami is not getting into the Playoff over Notre Dame. Anyone telling you, "ND is out," is simply making loud noises to get your attention because they 1) have no genuine, sophisticated analysis to share and 2) think you are too dumb to notice.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 30, 2025
Prove them wrong. https://t.co/nEyXbdS57a pic.twitter.com/oUHJCVqxC0
Biggest Drop
The biggest drop in national championship odds was not even Miami’s, despite the Hurricanes’ dreams of reaching the Playoff being dashed. Miami was always such a long shot; the +17500 odds remained unchanged.
Instead, Ohio State’s odds fell to +185 from +170 before the rankings reveal.
The best guess to explain that may be Alabama sliding in front of Notre Dame. With both the Tide and the Irish now likely for the Playoff — a two-touchdown upset in the Big 12 game is the only thing that would actually endanger either of them — this field should have all the teams that actually have genuine title aspirations.
Current @FDSportsbook odds to make the Playoff, far from the most accurate assessment when looking at a committee, but still notable:
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 2, 2025
Notre Dame -375
Miami +540
Texas +1800
Oklahoma making the Playoff isn't even listed. Missing is at +2200. https://t.co/8sP9Rz0MGw
