College Football Playoff Bracket Prediction & Odds to Make the CFP – Championship Week

The College Football Playoff selection committee’s weekly rankings finally matter.

Their Tuesday night release should be a significant precursor to the final Playoff field. Up until now, these shows have served no purpose other than boosting ESPN’s ratings.

At this point, though, they can educate us as to what the 2025 postseason will look like.

My projection for the Playoff bracket features an SEC championship upset...

College Football Playoff bracket prediction

• 5) Georgia vs. 12) North Texas
• 8) Mississippi vs. 9) Oklahoma
• 6) Texas A&M vs. 11) Virginia
• 7) Oregon vs. 10) Notre Dame
• BYES: 1) Ohio State, 2) Indiana, 3) Alabama, 4) Texas Tech

CFP Bracket analysis

Thanks to Texas A&M losing at Texas, it is easy to see Ohio State and Indiana staying in the top two seeds of the Playoff, no matter the result of the Big Ten title game.

Those are the only two teams in the country to reach 12-0. They should be rewarded for it.

But how could Alabama jump to No. 3 when a week ago the Tide were No. 10 in the rankings? By winning the SEC championship and strengthening an already unimpeachable argument.

Alabama may have the best Playoff résumé in the country, boasting wins against Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee. Beating the Bulldogs for a second time would elevate the Tide further.

And given the desperation that should be inherent for Alabama, betting on that slight upset makes sense. Should the Tide be knocked out of the Playoff field if they lose in the SEC championship game? 

No. The selection committee has explicitly said it will not unduly punish teams for losing in conference championship games.

“If you lose it, theoretically it’s not supposed to hurt you,” former committee chair Mack Rhoades said earlier this season. (Rhoades has since been removed from both the committee and as Baylor’s AD due to personal reasons.) “Could it hurt you? If it was a game where it wasn’t competitive and you completely got blown away, then that would be a conversation, candidly, in the room amongst the committee.”

That lends further credibility to an already obvious and rhetorical wonder of how much anyone could really knock Georgia for suffering just two losses this season, both of them to Alabama. Texas Tech figures to delight from a conference championship, but keep the Bulldogs at No. 5 beyond that.

The biggest wonder in this Playoff field is clearly if Miami will leap into consideration ahead of Notre Dame.

Current @FDSportsbook odds to make the Playoff, far from the most accurate assessment when looking at a committee, but still notable:
Notre Dame -375
Miami +540
Texas +1800

Oklahoma making the Playoff isn't even listed. Missing is at +2200. https://t.co/8sP9Rz0MGw

— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) December 2, 2025

To anyone trying to tell you, “ND is out,” please encourage them to shout at trees, as you are too smart to engage in their irrational ranting.

The committee has made it clear that losing to ho-hum teams will be punished. Miami losing to SMU and Louisville thus costs the Hurricanes.

If that bothers Miami, there is an approach it should take next season: Beat the bad teams on the schedule.

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Latest odds to make the College Football Playoff

Team	Conference
Ohio State Buckeyes	Big Ten	-130
Indiana Hoosiers	Big Ten	+150
Georgia Bulldogs	SEC	+290
Oregon Ducks	Big Ten	+400
Texas Tech Red Raiders	Big 12	+430
Texas A&M Aggies	SEC	+470
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Independent	+550
Alabama Crimson Tide	SEC	+600
Mississippi Rebels	SEC	+1000
Oklahoma Sooners	SEC	+2700
Miami Hurricanes	ACC	+6000
North Texas Mean Green	AAC	+10000
Virginia Cavaliers	ACC	+12500
BYU Cougars	Big 12	+20000
Tulane Green Wave	AAC	+22500

Important dates for the College Football Playoff

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