Do not let the College Football Playoff control all your attention this November. There are still 136 teams across the FBS level, and they all play through the month.
There are gambling edges to be found throughout those 136 teams. Focusing on only Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Alabama leaves opportunities untapped. Instead, let’s take a look at the sport from the top (Indiana) to the bottom (Boston College) in these college football predictions for Week 12.
College football predictions Week 12
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Indiana -28.5 |
-112 at DraftKings |
 Notre Dame team total Over 33.5 |
-114 at FanDuel |
 Kansas State -19.5 |
-108 at DraftKings |
 Georgia Tech vs.  Boston College Under 59.5 |
-112 at DraftKings |
 Southern Miss -3 |
-102 at Caesars |
Indiana -28.5
The best passing offense in the country? The Ohio State Buckeyes and quarterback Julian Sayin.
The second-best passing offense in the country? The Indiana Hoosiers and quarterback Fernando Mendoza.
The Hoosiers actually have a better total offense than the Buckeyes by the slimmest of margins in terms of expected points added (EPA) per snap, per CFB-graphs.com. But that is not a debate needed to be pondered this week.
Wisconsin gave up 393 passing yards and four touchdowns to Ohio State a month ago in a 34-0 loss, a performance that Indiana may want to replicate simply out of Heisman concerns.
For the Badgers to cover this massive spread, they will need to score. The Hoosiers will default to 35 points. Can Wisconsin reach the end zone?
All logic says no. The Badgers’ offense ranks in the bottom 30 of the country in EPA, running the ball egregiously often simply because it is less likely to spell disaster. Indiana’s rushing defense is better than Ohio State’s, so there is plenty of reason to expect the Hoosiers to stop the Badgers in their tracks.
If looking for a lottery ticket type bet this weekend, finding exact scores like 28-0, 35-0 and 38-0 in Bloomington would all make sense. If your sportsbook does not intuitively offer final scores, recognize that some alternate spread and total bets can be parlayed to create one. For example, Indiana -37.5 paired with the Under 38.5 pays +4900 at DraftKings.
Notre Dame team total Over 33.5
No one in the country throws more often than Hawaii. Not even close. But then comes Pittsburgh with the second-highest relative passing rate, throwing 12.8% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state.
That rate has been even higher since the Panthers installed Mason Heintschel as their starting quarterback. In Pittsburgh’s five games with Heintschel starting, it has dipped below 12.4% passing rate over expected just once, peaking at 15.0% against NC State a couple weeks ago.
That made sense. The Wolfpack defense has gone against just about every Dave Doeren tenet this season. But it was still largely a reflection of what the Panthers are right now, effectively going against every Pat Narduzzi tent.
Against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, that could prove disastrous. The Irish defense has found great success against passing offenses since September, making life outright miserable for a pile of quality offenses in Arkansas, Boise State and USC.
Pittsburgh ranks a pedestrian No. 48 in EPA per dropback, behind North Carolina State, USC and Arkansas. Of those offenses, only the Trojans fared anything near well against the Irish, USC’s No. 4 dropback EPA falling to +0.075 per dropback in that matchup, compared to +0.275 across the season.
In other words, Pittsburgh should expect its passing offense to falter and falter badly. Given the Panthers’ habits, that should also include faltering often.
That will give Notre Dame’s offense the ball back often and quickly. The Irish have found too much explosiveness not to score when enjoying the ball that often.
And that is not even factoring in that Heintschel has thrown five interceptions in his last four starts. A couple of those could set up Notre Dame with short fields, turning a blowout into an outright rout.
Kansas State -19.5
The Kansas State Wildcats have undoubtedly heard plenty of talk this week, the long expected transfer from star running back Dylan Edwards becoming public knowledge.
But anyone paying attention to the Little Apple has seen that decision coming for quite some time.
This is a moment to trust the better program, not to mention the better team. Oklahoma State is the program in free fall. Since firing Mike Gundy, the Cowboys have largely been out of the headlines and perhaps even forgotten by many, but they have not gotten better. A decent offensive showing against Kansas was undone by one of Oklahoma State’s worst defensive performances of the year.
This is what that program is right now. The Cowboys are 2-7 against the spread this season. A touchdown in the final two minutes in their last game should hardly better your view of them.
Similarly, Kansas State getting blown out by Texas Tech two weeks ago should hardly be held against the Wildcats. Before that, they had covered the spread in four straight games.
Lastly, Kansas State is 4-5 right now, with a trip to Utah remaining before hosting Colorado to end the season. It is all but guaranteed that Chris Klieman emphasized to his team during the idle week that they need a win on Saturday to keep bowl hopes thriving.
Georgia Tech vs. Boston College Under 59.5
This thought backfired a week ago, in a disappointing week for this column, stumbling to 1-4 and a loss of 3.29 units.
But SMU at Boston College Eagles found its Over in large part thanks to four explosive touchdowns from the Mustangs.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will not provide those same moments of fireworks, even if its offense is significantly better than SMU’s. If anything, the Yellow Jackets should be conservative this week.
Their ACC title hopes will be on the line next week against Pittsburgh, and then Georgia Tech hosts Georgia in a chance to strengthen a Playoff argument. This trip to Boston College needs to be treated as a chore more than anything else.
Expect a conservative game plan from Brent Key, one confining Haynes King to the pocket despite his best bad instincts. And expect the three-score favorite to be the one to shorten the game, Georgia Tech running the ball 4.4% more often than expected — No. 28 in the country — compared to SMU’s habit of running 8.6% less often than expected, No. 99 in the country.
Only now realizing my dozen bets from late Sunday night included no underdogs. Not even against the spread.
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) November 13, 2025
Huh.
Guess I won't have a moneyline upset as my fifth bet in my Best Bets this week. I just don't believe in one (yet).
Southern Miss -3
The Southern Miss Golden Eagles continue barreling toward a Sun Belt title appearance, sitting at 5-0 in conference play and now hosting 0-5 Texas State. Then why is this spread within a field goal?
Because the Bobcats have an impressive offense, one sitting at No. 2 in the Sun Belt in offensive EPA as well as No. 3 in both quality drive rate and points per quality drive.
Then how is Texas State 0-5 in Sun Belt play? The third-worst defense in the league and eighth-worst in the country might have something to do with that.
Worse yet, the Bobcats are on a seven-game losing streak against the spread, including all five of their Sun Belt games thus far.
The Golden Eagles are putting together a strong campaign in Charles Huff’s attempt to win back-to-back Sun Belt titles, a storyline that makes Marshall look worse and worse.
This spread shortening this week from its opening number of -7 sets us up with an opportunity to profit on the second-best team in the Sun Belt, even if advanced metrics seem to disagree with the want. Even more than that, it is an opportunity to fade Texas State’s disastrous defense.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 25-34-1 this season for -8.83 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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