The college football season is coming down the home stretch, which means both tight conference races, and teams calling it quits early. They both create betting opportunities.
This week, my college football best bets back a pair unlikely teams with a chance at a conference title thanks to some strong quarterback play. Plus, one of my favorite fades for the rest of the season will be the USC run defense.
For even more Week 12 college football picks, check out Douglas Farmer’s college football predictions.
College football best bets Week 12
| Pick |  |
|---|---|
 Duke -4.5 |
-110 |
 Moulton o74.5 rush yds |
-114 |
 Houser o257.5 pass yds |
-114 |
| 💲 All three parlayed | +572 |
Duke -4.5
You can’t argue that the 12-team College Football Playoff doesn’t make the sport more exciting every week.
So many games have an impact on the potential field, and teams are in the race much deeper into the season. And, depending on your conference, a handful of losses might not even eliminate you.
Duke, I’m looking at you.
The Duke Blue Devils enter this week with a 5-4 record. For years in college football, that meant you were fighting for a chance to play in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl.
But not in the 12-team CFP era, where all the Power Four conference winners earn a spot in the field. Duke enters this week’s matchup with Virginia at 4-1 in conference play.
Now, the Cavaliers have also been one of the bigger surprises this season, and they also enter this pivotal ACC matchup with just one conference loss. However, they have several question marks heading into this game.
First and foremost is the status of QB Chandler Morris. He is currently listed as questionable to play as he deals with a concussion.
Reports are that Virginia thinks he’ll have a good shot to play, and books have adjusted to this news, moving the line to 4.5.
But I’ll tell you. I liked Duke to cover 5.5 even with Morris in the lineup. With Morris, the Cavs still rank a middling 63rd in success rate.
The Blue Devils are led by QB Darian Mensah, and the sophomore signal caller has been outstanding this season. Mensah has thrown for 2,794 yards with 24 touchdowns compared to just four interceptions.
Duke ranks 25th in success rate and 26th in EPA per play as a result. That is the best offense that Virginia has seen this season by a wide margin.
Mensah will be the difference in this one and lead the Blue Devils to a win and cover.
Kamari Moulton Over 74.5 rushing yards
I will be fading the USC Trojans' run defense for the remainder of the season, and a matchup with the Iowa Hawkeyes makes it all the more appealing.
With a 5-1 conference record, the Trojans still have an outside chance at the Big Ten title and the College Football Playoff. But they’ll never be able to make that a reality with the current state of their run defense.
Teams are literally rumbling all over the Trojans, and they enter this game ranked 122nd in defensive success rate vs. the rush and 76th in EPA per rush.
Northwestern's Caleb Komolafe carried the ball 17 times for 118 yards, Nebraska's Emmett Johnson went 29 for 165, Notre Dame's Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price combined for 315 yards on the ground. And that's just in the last three games.
So, it may be on the nose, but we’re taking Kamari Moulton to go Over his rushing total this week.
Oddsmakers have set the number at a modest 74.5. He has rushed for 432 at 4.9 yards per carry over the last five games, and has hit at least 75 yards in all five. I don’t get this number at all, it’s not like Iowa will start to throw the ball this week.
I’ll have a sprinkle on Moulton to go for 100+ yards at +182, but Over 74.5 rushing yards is an amazing value this week.
Katin Houser Over 257.5 passing yards
The American is another intriguing conference coming down the stretch.
Five teams are leading the way with just one conference loss. Currently, it’s the USF Bulls who are ranked in the College Football Playoff Rankings thanks to non-conference wins over Boise State and Florida.
But today my focus is the overlooked East Carolina Pirates. The Pirates are 6-3, with the lone conference loss coming to a good Tulane team on the road by just one touchdown. Otherwise, the ECU has been playing well this season, thanks in large part to quarterback Katin Houser.
Houser leads an ECU offense that ranks 27th in the country in success rate, 26th in success rate on dropbacks, and 39th in EPA per dropback. Houser himself has thrown for 2,469 yards with 14 touchdowns and just five interceptions, and I expect him to keep chucking it this weekend against the Memphis Tigers.
The Tigers were one of the favorites to earn that Group of Five spot in the CFP, but a stunning loss to UAB followed by a six-point loss to the Green Wave last week has pretty much dashed their conference and playoff hopes.
The Tigers biggest problem has been getting burned by opposing passers. Memphis enters this game ranked 89th in success rate on dropbacks and 80th in EPA per dropback.
Houser will lead the Purple Pirates to a win at home on Saturday, going Over his passing yards prop in the process. It's a number he has topped in five of nine games this season.
Triple Option Parlay for Week 12
Duke -4.5
Kamari Moulton Over 74.5 rushing yards
Katin Houser Over 257.5 passing yards
My weekly Triple Option column is 14-16 this season for -2.7 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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