Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Dame With a Capital D

The Pittsburgh Panthers have long been a thorn in the side of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Of its 14 meetings this century, Pitt has won four and lost by a single possession in six others. Notre Dame has blown out Pittsburgh just once in its last nine meetings.

Yet the Irish should have little reason to worry about today, with college football odds tabbing them as three-touchdown favorites coming off an idle week.

Betting against the Panthers creating another headache fits our free college football picks and predictions for Pittsburgh vs. Notre Dame on October 28.

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame best odds

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame picks and predictions

A veteran-heavy defense with excellent cornerbacks, and thus better against the pass than the run, and makes it a habit to stand up where it matters most, against an offense that throws the ball poorly but rushes so much worse that it's forced to throw.

No, that’s not a description of Notre Dame hosting Pittsburgh. That is a description of the Irish hosting Boston College last November.

Well, actually, it’s a description of both.

The parallels between this year’s Panthers and last year’s Eagles are somewhat eerie.

Boston College ranked No. 86 in the country in expected points added per dropback, 30 spots better than its rushing attack, all part of an offense that ranked No. 101 in the country in EPA when it arrived in South Bend for the regular season’s penultimate weekend. It put together a quality drive just 36% of the time, perhaps showing its quarterback’s inexperience.

Emmett Morehead was in his third career start, with multiple touchdowns in each of his first two, though averaging just 7.1 yards per pass attempt. His offensive coordinator, John McNulty, had worked under Greg Schiano at Rutgers for five years early in his coaching career.

Pittsburgh currently ranks No. 85 in the country in expected points added per dropback, 27 spots better than its rushing attack, all part of an offense that ranks No. 109 in the country in EPA as it arrives in South Bend on the back half of its schedule. It puts together a quality drive just 33.7 percent of the time, perhaps showing its new quarterback’s inexperience.

Christian Veilleux will make his third career start Saturday, with multiple touchdowns in each of his first two, though averaging 7.1 yards per pass attempt. His offensive coordinator, Frank Cignetti Jr., worked under Greg Schiano at Rutgers for one season early in his coaching career.

Arguably aided by the snow, Notre Dame ruined Boston College’s and Morehead’s visit in 2022, rolling to a 55-0 win. Morehead threw three interceptions as he completed just 9 of his 22 passes for 117 yards, the Eagles gaining 173 total yards. The Irish didn’t have any defensive touchdowns, but five Boston College turnovers did set up five short fields.

Pittsburgh has a better defense than the Eagles did. Presumably, Veilleux will not lead the way to five turnovers. But Notre Dame is well aware of how to handle this kind of star-lacking, offensive line-struggling, pass-happy offensive approach, one faulty in every way and trying to rely on its less bad parts. Irish head coach Marcus Freeman and defensive coordinator Al Golden have a game plan readymade for this matchup, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them shut out the Panthers.

My best bet: Pittsburgh team total Under 12.5 points (-102 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame same-game parlay

Pittsburgh team total Under 11.5 points

Christian Veilleux Under 186.5 passing yards

Jaden Greathouse anytime touchdown

+700 at DraftKings

Pittsburgh is unlikely to put together four quality drives, let alone then be forced to kick field goals on all four of them, so let’s just ignore the number 12, moving to DraftKings for this same-game parlay because of the next leg of it.

FanDuel sets the Christian Veilleux prop at 174.5 yards, while DraftKings lists it at 186.5. That is obviously a significant gap, and the value of 12 passing yards could be two Veilleux attempts. That’s worth jumping Under 11.5 points rather than Under 12.5 points.

Notre Dame has the No. 1 EPA pass defense in the country. North Carolina State veteran Brennan Armstrong managed only 170 passing yards until the Wolfpack was down at least two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Ohio State’s Kyle McCord was at 167 passing yards until his frenetic last-minute drive. Defending Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams managed 179 yards in the first 52 minutes two weeks ago, another player buoyed by some garbage-time stats.

No one else has cracked 150 passing yards against the Irish, let alone 185. Veilleux may threaten this in garbage time, but by then, Panthers head coach Pat Narduzzi may be obliged to simply run out the clock.

As for Jaden Greathouse, his player odds have been dampened by a lingering hamstring injury, one that has slowed him since Notre Dame’s trip to Duke on Sept. 30. He had three touchdown catches in his first five games before that, part of 12 catches. Those numbers may not seem encouraging enough to include here, but there’s value in his anytime touchdown number, and Irish quarterback Sam Hartman should be eager to incorporate Greathouse into the passing game, particularly coming off the idle week.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame spread and Over/Under analysis

Notre Dame opened as a 19-point favorite on Sunday, a number than then plummeted to -17.5 that evening before rebounding on Monday to -20. Its midweek climb to -20.5 could suggest a full -21 coming on Saturday morning, though the Irish are 2-1 against the spread as favorites of 20.5 points or more this season.

The total first touched the market at 42.5 before spiking to 45.5, falling back to 44 on Tuesday and then settling at 45 on Thursday. Its fluctuations should be considered a direct reflection of the uncertainty around Notre Dame’s offense, in part worried about Greathouse’s and junior Jayden Thomas’s hamstrings.

Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame betting trend to know

Three of Notre Dame’s last four games have gone Under their totals, the exception being the most recent Irish game, when two return touchdowns pushed the score Over the total of 60.5. Find more college football betting trends for Pittsburgh vs Notre Dame.

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