The Oregon-Oregon State rivalry is one of the oldest in college football betting and the Ducks and Beavers will renew hostilities when the two do battle in Corvallis this Friday.
The Ducks survived a scare from UCLA last week, keeping their College Football Playoff hopes alive, while the Beavers notched their first win of the season against Cal. Oregon has won this rivalry matchup each of the last three years and NCAA odds has the Ducks as 13.5-point betting favorites to make it four in a row.
Let’s take a look at our best college football predictions for Oregon vs. Oregon State, with kickoff scheduled for Friday, November 27 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Oregon Ducks at Oregon State Beavers Betting Preview
Weather
It will be a chilly night in Oregon. The forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies with temperatures hovering just above the freezing mark, but with minimal wind. Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key Injuries
Oregon: Cam McCormick TE (Questionable), Spencer Webb TE (Questionable), Patrick Herbert TE (Questionable), Mycah Pittman WR (Questionable), Daewood Davis WR (Questionable), Steve Stephens S (Questionable), Noah Sewell LB (Questionable).
Oregon State: Sebastian Briski DL (Questionable), Kyrei Fisher LB (Questionable), Junior Walling LB (Questionable), David Morris DB (Questionable).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting Trend to Know
The Oregon-Oregon State rivalry has certainly been full of fireworks over the years with, the Over going 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings. Find more NCAA betting trends for Oregon vs. Oregon State.
Against the Spread (ATS) Pick
Oregon was able to outlast UCLA 38-35, but the Ducks closed as 18.5-point favorites, so they really underperformed. They got away from a running game that averaged 269 yards in their first two games, only totaling 88 yards against the Bruins.
The other issue that has plagued Oregon through the first part of its schedule has been turnovers. The Ducks have already turned the ball over six times this season, and turnovers are never good when it comes to covering spreads.
So, the Ducks should put an emphasis on ball security and the ground game against their in-state rivals. Even with the down day on the ground, Oregon still rushes for 208.7 yards per game and faces an Oregon State defense that is allowing 206.7 yards on the ground through its first three games. Expect a heavy dose of running backs C.J. Verdell and Travis Dye.
Meanwhile, Oregon State has been in all three of its games this season, culminating with the Beavers’ first win last week against Cal. The Beavers are a run-first team, led by junior RB Jermar Jefferson. Jefferson has already run for 449 yards this season at a ridiculous clip of 7.2 yards per carry. He’ll be a handful for an Oregon team that allows 5.2 yards per rush and is coming off a game in which it coughed up 267 rushing yards to UCLA.
Oregon is the more talented of the two teams, and likely gets the win, but until the Ducks can get the turnovers under control and show they can stop a guy like Jefferson, it’s hard not to like the Beavers getting two touchdowns at home.
PREDICTION: Oregon State +14 (-110)
Over/Under Pick
The total for this rivalry game is on the board at 64.5, which is actually the second-lowest Over/Under this matchup has seen over the last eight years. That's because when the Ducks and Beavers get together, puts are usually put up on the board. Even with just the 34 total points scored in last year’s game, this rivalry has seen an average of 67.1 total points per game over the last 10 meetings.
And the trend could return in 2020.
The Ducks are averaging 38.7 points per game, while the Oregon State defense is allowing nearly 30 points per game. And if there was something good that came out of the UCLA game, it was that QB Tyler Shough showed he was capable of shouldering the load for the offense, going 19-30 for 334 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.
The Beavers, on the other hand, score 26.7 points per game but have been consistent to this point, putting up between 21 and 31 in each of their first three contests. If they stay around that average, it should be enough to send this one over and the Beavers have the tools in this matchup to be on the high end of that average.
PREDICTION: Over 64.5 (-110)
Team Total Pick
All of this has us looking at the Beavers’ team total. This number is just a little too low against a defense that hasn’t been good at this point.
While the Ducks haven’t been good against the run, they’ve almost been as bad against the pass. They are generating little pressure on opposing QBs and aren’t causing turnovers. All that means Oregon State should go Over this number.
PREDICTION: Oregon State team total Over 23.5 (-125)
Oregon vs Oregon State Betting Card
- Oregon State +14 (-110)
- Over 64.5 (-110)
- Oregon State team total Over 23.5 (-125)
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