Mississippi vs Texas   Picks & Props

Ole Miss star Trinidad Chambliss faces a Texas defense that allowed Florida freshman Tramell Jones Jr. to complete nearly 63% of his passes in his first career start. Despite the Longhorns ranking 10th in passing yards allowed per game, Chambliss should thrive, especially if Ole Miss plays from behind and needs a statement win.

Ole Miss has bounced back in a big way from its loss to Florida, outscoring Vanderbilt and Missouri 82-20 over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, Texas is officially on quit watch after losing to a freshman making his first collegiate start. Now, the Longhorns must face Trinidad Chambliss and a dangerous Rebels squad. I'm backed against the wall here, Ole Miss or nothing.

This is a huge week for Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning, and I expect them to rise to the occassion and score 29+ points against Ole Miss. The Rebels defense ranks just 89th nationally in EPA per drive and is allowing 29.2 points per game against ranked opponents.

Texas should be favored by more than a field goal at home against Ole Miss, and I'd take the Longhorns up to -5.5. Despite Arch Manning's inconsistent play, Texas has the talent advantage, especially on defense. The Longhorns rank third nationally in net adjusted EPA per play on defense and can slow Trinidad Chambliss enough to win decisively. 

Ole Miss has hit the Over in all three of its Power Four games away from home, and I like it to hit at 54.5 or better aginst Texas. The Rebels allow the most yards per game in the SEC (390), but have the best QB in the conference in Trinidad Chambliss. Chambliss has Ole Miss ranked 10 in points per opportunity (4.86) and offensive success rate (51.9%). 

Ole Miss has returned to top form since its early-October bye week, winning by 35 at Vanderbilt before dominating ranked Missouri 31-3 on Saturday. Meanwhile, Texas has lost back-to-back games against teams not as good as Ole Miss, and Arch Manning concerns now have the entire program in flux at a bad time. I expect a bit of a shootout, and that plays into the hands of the Rebels, who rank 10th in scoring offense and 20th in yards per play.  This Longhorns offense (89th in yards per play) won't be able to keep pace in its current state.