Mississippi vs Mississippi State Picks and Predictions: Cracking the Egg Bowl

The shock waves from the Egg Bowl can be wide and unexpected, most notably leading to both Mississippi and Mississippi State needing new coaches just two years ago. Such chaos should not follow this year’s rendition, but when it comes to the Egg Bowl, nothing can ever be ruled out.

Here are our free college football picks and predictions for Mississippi at Mississippi State on November 25, with kickoff set for 7:30 ET.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Mississippi State opened as a 1.5-point favorite on Sunday, and while that line ticked down to just -0.5 late Sunday night and into Monday morning, it returned to -1.5 and remained there. The total experienced a similar early-week dip, dropping to 60.5 after opening at 61.5, before jumping to 62.5 on Tuesday and 63.5 on Wednesday.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State predictions

• Mississippi +1.5 (-110)
• Over 63.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Mississippi Money Line +105

Predictions made on 11/24/2021 at 1:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State game info

• Location: Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS
• Date: Thursday, November 25, 2021
• Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Mississippi vs Mississippi State betting preview

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.

Key injuries

Mississippi: None
Mississippi State: Brandon Ruiz K (Questionable)
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five Egg Bowls, and the road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six. Find more NCAA betting trends for Mississippi vs. Mississippi State.

Mississippi vs Mississippi State picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Spread analysis

One lookahead line from last week favored Mississippi by two points, yet come Sunday, that had essentially flipped. What changed? Excellent question.

Both the Rebels and the Bulldogs took care of business against substandard opponents. Somehow failing to cover a 35.5-point spread against Vanderbilt, however, dinged Mississippi a surprising amount, especially because it is not like Mississippi State did anything noteworthy by beating FCS-level Tennessee State 55-10.

If that lookahead line looked off by a field goal simply because the Rebels did not dispatch the Commodores as aggressively as expected, that makes them the exact play this week for two reasons. First of all, a gambling adage that Covers.com should consider installing as a header on every page, “No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game.” Mississippi’s previous 10 games tell us more about it than failing to shut down Vanderbilt’s offense does.

Secondly, an understanding of human nature and a trust of logic suggest the Rebels may have been lackluster last weekend, while still winning, because they were already looking toward the Bulldogs. Overlooking an opponent for another is only a problem until you have reached the foe of note, and Mississippi now has.

Prediction: Mississippi +1.5 (-110)

Over/Under analysis

Doubling down on that concept, Rebels head coach Lane Kiffin did not show anything of note against the Commodores. He knew he did not need to.

One of the more innovative offensive minds in the game, there is no chance Kiffin was out of ideas. He simply wanted to hold them in reserve for Mike Leach’s defense.

Leach will undoubtedly respond in kind.

If either of these teams had played FBS-quality opponents last week, perhaps the Under would be the play on Thanksgiving, but both offensive-focused coaching staffs have had a few weeks to scheme up for this game. Going against them and leaning on their defenses feels akin to focusing on the creamy spinach on your dinner table today. A good dish, assuredly, but no one is sitting down with that as their focus.

Prediction: Over 63.5 (-110)

Best bet

When it comes to a game rooted in chaos, a contest known for the absurd, a rivalry based upon genuine distaste for one another, leaning into the unexpected makes sense. More rationally, buying low on Mississippi after that disappointing showing against Vanderbilt should have value.

In a game that should be treated as a pick’em, the plus money is too worthwhile to turn down.

Pick: Mississippi Money Line +105

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