It's not often you get a matchup of Top 5 teams this early in the season, so you'll want to get your popcorn ready as No. 1 Ohio State visits No. 4 Texas at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
Our Ohio State vs. Texas expert picks are calling for a high-scoring affair in Austin, Texas, while the outcome could go either way.
Don't miss any of our college football picks for Week 2!
Ohio State vs Texas expert picks
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 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Brad Powers: Ohio State +1.5 |
50% |
 Rob Paul: Over 49.5 |
52% |
 Colby Marchio: Over 49.5 |
52% |
 Chris Vasile: Texas -1.5 |
51% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Brad Powers’ expert pick: Ohio State +1.5
Price: 50% at Kalshi
My Week 2 power ratings make the game pick.
Ohio State has to feel disrespected as the underdog considering it has beaten Texas each of the last two years. Since 2012, the Buckeyes are 10-3 ATS as an underdog with an average cover of 14 points per game. They are also 9-4 straight up!
Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian has an 11-14 straight-up record vs. Top-20 teams at Texas, and he's lost each of the three times he's been at home vs. a Top-5 team.
While the quarterbacks and wide receivers will get most of the publicity here, I think the game will be won in the trenches. Ohio State's offensive and defensive lines are ranked higher in my rankings.
Rob Paul’s expert pick: Over 49.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
When these two teams played last year, it was Julian Sayin's first career start and Arch Manning's first road start. Fast forward a year, and both are Heisman Trophy odds contenders with some of the best offensive talent around them in the country.
Sayin's throwing to the best player in college football, Jeremiah Smith, while Manning has a projected Top-10 pick at wide receiver of his own in Cam Coleman and maybe the best offensive tackle duo in the sport.
Both offenses are much better this season than they were in Week 1 last year, while both defenses are dealing with change. Ohio State had seven defenders drafted, including five in the Top 62 (a modern-era record), while Texas made a coordinator change with Will Muschamp calling the defense.
That's a recipe for points, and it will feel like a shootout compared to last year's game.
Colby Marchio’s expert pick: Over 49.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Texas may not be the side to back outright, but taking the points requires believing in Manning to deliver against Ohio State in a rematch of last season’s 14-7 loss. Manning threw for 170 yards with a touchdown and interception in that game, and while I am not fully sold on him, I am certainly not a hater.
Texas has plenty of weapons around its young quarterback, but its defense is a concern after allowing nearly 350 yards to Texas State and giving up eight third-down conversions from 14 attempts.
Meanwhile, Ohio State played at a faster tempo last week, which could create scoring opportunities.
Chris Vasile’s expert pick: Texas -1.5
Price: 51% at Kalshi
Last year’s 14-7 loss is misleading. Texas outgained Ohio State 336-203, outrushed them 166-77, and still lost because it went 1-for-5 on fourth down and 0-for-2 in the red zone. Now the rematch is in Austin, Arch Manning is coming off a 305-yard, four-TD opener, and Ohio State’s defense is much less daunting.
I believe Texas finishes the drives it couldn’t last year and Arch finally has his (early) statement game.
How to watch Ohio State vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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