North Carolina vs Miami Odds, Picks and Predictions: Offenses Set the Tone Early

Week 6 in college football features an ACC battle between the Tar Heels and Hurricanes in South Florida. Read more in our North Carolina vs. Miami betting picks to find out why we love the first half total to go Over.

Jason Ence - Betting Analyst at
Jason Ence • Betting Analyst
Oct 7, 2022 • 13:16 ET • 4 min read
Drake Maye North Carolina Tar Heels NCAAF
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Fireworks could be in store on Saturday afternoon in South Beach as the Miami Hurricanes look to corral the high-powered North Carolina passing attack.

The Tar Heels are averaging more than 500 yards of offense per game while allowing more than 450, which is good news for a Miami offense that's been struggling of late. If the past few years of this series are any indication, we should be in for an entertaining 60 minutes of football.

Find out more in our college football picks and predictions for North Carolina vs. Miami on Saturday, October 8.

North Carolina vs Miami best odds

North Carolina vs Miami picks and predictions

Sometimes college football games can take a while for points to hit the board, but that’s not the case when North Carolina is playing. In all five of their games this season, there have been no fewer than 31 points scored at halftime. 

Miami has had a week to lick its wounds following a 45-31 upset loss to Middle Tennessee. The Hurricanes surrendered 17 points in the opening quarter, en route to trailing 24-10 at the break. Miami has scored just 40 points in its last two games while allowing 62 in that span to the Blue Raiders and Texas A&M.

Miami’s offense has struggled in large part due to its inconsistent play at quarterback. Tyler Van Dyke should get a confidence boost against a Tar Heels' defense that is allowing nearly 260 yards through the air per game. They’re even worse against the run, which should also improve Miami’s mark of 3.4 yards per carry.

Notre Dame ran for almost 300 yards against North Carolina, and Miami has two running backs who should be able to break off some solid runs. On the flip side, Tar Heels' QB Drake Maye leads an offense that is posting 320 yards passing per game with more than 500 yards of total offense. North Carolina’s two road games this season have both been open-ended affairs, including their 63-61 duel with Appalachian State.

Now Maye gets to take shots against a Miami defense allowing better than 10 yards per pass attempt and ranks 80th in passing yards allowed, despite having faced the fourth-fewest passes per game in college football this season. This should be a high-scoring affair, and I like it to be that way from the jump.

North Carolina ranks in the Top 25 of the nation for both points scored and points allowed in the second quarter this season. Additionally, the two teams are combining to score an average of 25 points in the second quarter. That will be the main catalyst for 32 or more hitting the board prior to halftime.

My best bet: First half Over 31.5 (-125 at DraftKings)

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North Carolina vs Miami spread analysis

Miami is favored by 3.5-points in this game, indicating it would be basically even on a neutral field. The line has fluctuated as the week has gone by after the Hurricanes opened as three-point favorites, and the line went up to 4.5 before settling to the current number.

Miami will be thankful for the rest, and its defense will need it against North Carolina’s passing attack. Maye has thrown 19 touchdowns this season and has just one interception so far while adding another three scores on the ground. Miami’s pass rush has a high sack rate this season but surprisingly has a low havoc rating, so Maye should get some time to operate.

For Miami to win, the Hurricanes will need to reach the 30-point mark as they have in all three of their three wins. They’ll also need to establish the run, both to wear down North Carolina’s defense but also to keep Maye on the sideline. That shouldn’t be a problem, given the Tar Heels are allowing 451 yards of offense per game (the worst in the ACC).

The underdog has been the better play of late in this series, with the favorite failing to cover the spread in five of their last six meetings.

North Carolina vs Miami Over/Under analysis

Those who favor trends will be happy to know that the Over has won in each of the last four meetings. It’s also hit in each of Miami’s last five games following a defeat and in five of the Hurricanes' last six home games. The total at most books has been consistent at 66 throughout the week, a number that will be very tempting to bettors.

Both of these offenses can put up points when they’re firing, and that’s been the case in the recent history of this matchup. The last two games have seen 87, and 88 points scored, respectively. Last year’s game saw more than 800 yards of total offense, and the year before, North Carolina put up 778 yards on the Hurricanes.

If those types of numbers are approached this weekend, the Over has a very high likelihood of winning yet again.

North Carolina vs Miami betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Miami’s last five games following a defeat. Find more NCAA betting trends for North Carolina vs. Miami.

North Carolina vs Miami game info

Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, Florida
Date: Saturday, October 8, 2022
Kickoff: 4:00 p.m. ET

North Carolina vs Miami latest injuries

North Carolina vs Miami weather

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