The Fighting Irish head to Chapel Hill following their dominant performance against the Purdue Boilermakers, while the Tar Heels are coming off a bye after a tough loss to Clemson.
Will North Carolina have enough in the tank to cover the 21.5-point spread? The two teams kick off Saturday at noon ET on ESPN, and I’m diving into my Notre Dame vs. North Carolina early predictions.
My Week 5 college football picks outline why I’m leaning toward the Fighting Irish to cover the 21.5-point spread. The total sits at 48.5 points, but will North Carolina be able to do its part to contribute to what is already a low total?
Notre Dame vs North Carolina predictions
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Early Notre Dame vs North Carolina spread pick: Notre Dame -21.5
There is no reason for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to focus on anything but the task at hand. When they host Stanford next week, that could be a different story with BYU looming on Oct. 17. However, with that game still two weeks away, Notre Dame should be fully geared up to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels, who are coming off a bye following their brutal loss to Clemson on Sept. 19.
Even with the Tar Heels getting extra time to prepare for this matchup, they still have a massive mountain to climb, going from nearly beating a horrendous Clemson team to facing one of the best teams in the country. Plus, with how much of a breeze Notre Dame’s schedule is, there is no reason for the Irish to let off the gas at all this season, especially after being left out of the College Football Playoff last year.
The Tar Heels look far better than they did a year ago under Bill Belichick, but they are going to get bullied by this elite defense. I’m fully expecting a low-scoring game, with the Irish still covering the 21.5-point spread.
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Early Notre Dame vs North Carolina total pick: Under 48.5
The level of competition the Tar Heels have faced out of the gate will not compare to the talent level of the Fighting Irish defense. Sure, North Carolina put up 20 points on Clemson, but 14 of those 20 came in the first quarter. The Tar Heels were completely shut out over the next three quarters.
Now, they draw a defense that ranks No. 1 in points allowed per game, giving up just 8.3 points through the first few weeks of the season. On top of that, the Fighting Irish rank No. 1 in yards allowed, surrendering a hair below 200 per game.
Any scoring in this matchup will come courtesy of the blue and metallic gold.
Notre Dame vs North Carolina odds
- Notre Dame vs North Carolina spread: North Carolina +21.5
- Notre Dame vs North Carolina moneyline: Notre Dame 93%, North Carolina 7%
- Notre Dame vs North Carolina Over/Under: 48.5
How to watch Notre Dame vs North Carolina
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 3, 2026, 12 p.m. ET
- City: Chapel Hill, NC
- Venue: Kenan Stadium
- TV: ESPN
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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