Friday Junior college football! The one your father can easily find, because it is on ESPN with kickoff set for 8 p.m. ET.
My Memphis vs. South Florida prediction and college football picks have the Tigers sneaking past the Bulls in this Thursday night matchup for Week 11.
TOP PICK
Who will win Memphis vs South Florida: Memphis -3.5
This number has plummeted since opening at -6.5 in favor of the Memphis Tigers. People must really believe in this South Florida defense, which has held opponents to fewer than 15 points per game, 307 yards per game and 4.5 yards per play. They are a solid bunch.
However, will they be able to not only contain Memphis' explosive offense, but will the Bulls' offense be able to keep up? The Tigers may not have the defense South Florida does, but they have the ability to score you to death.
Memphis is currently ranked 10th in situation-adjusted pace, per Fourth and Short, while South Florida ranks as the 11th-slowest team.
The Tigers' offense ranks inside the top 15 in points per game (12th), yards per game (third) and yards per play (fourth).
With people buying into South Florida, I'd personally wait and see if we can get below 3.5. That's how I'm going to attack this game. Also, if you are able to find the Tigers to win at 60%, or lower, that is another option.
COVERS INTEL: Memphis is second in the American in explosive plays this season, connecting on nearly 100 this season. On the other side, South Florida has the fifth fewest explosive plays in conference. 
Memphis vs South Florida Over/Under pick: Over 50.5
Even with South Florida being the defensive slowpoke juggernaut of the American, this game should have points. Given how poorly Memphis plays defensively, the Bulls should have plenty of opportunities to score.
South Florida leans heavily on its ground attack, with nearly 60% of its plays coming via the run. Memphis is allowing 5.0 yards per carry and nearly 200 rushing yards per game, both ranking in the bottom 25 nationally.
The Tigers' fast tempo should keep this game moving from start to finish. Whether they're up or down in the second half, Memphis still ranks inside the top 25 nationally in seconds per play.
Memphis vs South Florida prop: South Florida Team Total Over 23.5
The price tag on this is just marvelous, especially when this Bulls rushing attack draws a defense allowing the fifth-most explosive rushes in the conference this season. Memphis is also allowing more than this number to its opponents.
We just need South Florida to step up a bit more on its end, as the Bulls are averaging only 21.8 points per game this season. With Memphis' pace, this should easily go over.
Memphis vs South Florida combo
A 3.11x payout for the Tigers to secure the win, paired with a fast-moving football game that should give both sides plenty of opportunities to put points on the board.
Taking this game well Over the 50.5-point total is absolutely worth adding to the card.
Memphis vs South Florida combo
- Memphis moneyline
- Over 50.5
Memphis vs South Florida market trends
Here's how trusted traders at Kalshi are dealing on today’s matchup. Follow the smart money via the widget below to help inform your Memphis vs. South Florida prediction.
- Top picks: 78-59, +18.90 units
Memphis vs South Florida odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Memphis -3.5 | South Florida +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 (49%) | Under 50.5 (52%)
- Moneyline: Memphis 61% | South Florida 39%
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Memphis vs South Florida weather
Weather in Tampa on Thursday will be around 70 degrees at kickoff, with light winds and just a 10% chance of rain.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Memphis vs South Florida trend to know
Memphis has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.48 Units / 11% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs. South Florida.
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How to watch Memphis vs South Florida
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla. |
| Date | Thursday, Nov. 12, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Memphis vs South Florida latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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