Toward the end of the regular season, an astute college football fan would have looked at the Memphis Tigers and the NC State Wolfpack and assumed the latter would be the one needing to replace its head coach before a bowl game.
Instead, Tigers head coach Ryan Silverfield somehow landed the Arkansas job while Dave Doeren insists he will return for another season with the Wolfpack.
Nonetheless, my Memphis vs. NC State predictions and college football picks trust the underdog with an interim head coach in the Gasparilla Bowl on Friday, December 19, at 2:30 ET.
Memphis vs NC State predictions for the Gasparilla Bowl
Who will win the Gasparilla Bowl?
Yes, the Memphis Tigers lost their last three games of the season, but those losses all came against top teams in the American Conference. Are you sure Tulane, East Carolina, and Navy are not better than Florida State and North Carolina?
Beating the hapless bottom of the ACC is the only reason the NC State Wolfpack are not in an absolute tailspin after a disappointing season led to loud consternation about Dave Doeren’s continued tenure.
Realizing Memphis’s losses, with two by one possession, are not as bad as they appear, and NC State’s wins are not as good as they seem, yields reason to trust the underdog.
Memphis vs NC State best bet: Memphis moneyline (+154)
North Carolina State’s defense has been a liability all season. Doeren’s late-game decision-making made it clear he did not have faith in the Wolfpack defense as early as Week 2, and that may have been a week late.
Most specifically, strong passing offenses embarrassed NC State, beginning with East Carolina and Virginia in Weeks 1 and 2 and extending all the way to Miami in Week 12.
Of 11 FBS opponents this season, NC State managed to adequately slow the passing offenses of Wake Forest, Virginia Tech, and Florida State. The other eight all enjoyed their time facing the Wolfpack, hence its ranking in the bottom half of the country in both expected points added (EPA) per dropback against and defensive dropback success rate, per CFB-graphs.com.
Enter a Memphis offense that has increasingly thrown the ball this season.
In their last seven games against FBS foes, the Tigers threw the ball at least 3.3% more often than an average team would in a given game state, with four of those games going north of 5.9% and two past 8%. And only once in those seven games — the regular-season finale against Navy — did throwing the ball that often backfire.
This is the exact offense that NC State did not want to face in a bowl game. Perhaps losing Ryan Silverfield will hurt the Tigers, but their offensive scheme is known, as is the Wolfpack’s defensive weakness.
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Memphis vs NC State same-game parlay
Doeren has not believed in his defense all season long, and his skepticism has been deserved. The Wolfpack rank in the bottom half of the country against the pass, and that struggle only worsened as the season went along.
On the other side of the ball, Memphis has never been built around its defense. Expect a shootout in the last College Football Playoff appetizer.
Memphis vs NC State SGP
- Memphis moneyline
- Over 58.5
Memphis vs NC State odds
- Spread: Memphis +4.5 (-110) | NC State -4.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Memphis +154 | NC State -184
- Over/Under: Over 58.5 (-115) | Under 58.5 (-105)
Memphis vs NC State trend to know
Four of Memphis’s last five games cleared their totals, the exception being against Navy’s triple-option offense. Those four Overs cashed by an average of 6.6 points. Find more college football betting trends for Memphis vs NC State.
How to watch Memphis vs NC State
| Location | Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL |
| Date | Friday, December 19, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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