The biggest game of college football's Week 3 and one of this season's standout rivalries takes place tonight, with head coach Lane Kiffin returning to face his (most recent) former team.
The LSU vs. Ole Miss smart money from trusted traders at Kalshi — one of our best prediction market apps — is backing Kiffin's former team, with the home fans likely to make their impact felt after the head coach turned coat this offseason.
LSU is favored by 3.5 points with a 55% chance for Ole Miss to cover, according to Kalshi traders. While LSU is being given a 58% probability to win outright, over 66% of the smart money at Kalshi backs the underdog for the upset.
Let's dive into where the smart money is going on tonight's LSU vs. Ole Miss showdown in Oxford, Miss. (ABC, 7:30 p.m. ET).
- Quick facts: LSU has a 58% win probability, according to Kalshi traders, with a spread of 3.5 points favoring the Tigers (46%) and a total of 58.5.
LSU vs Ole Miss smart money at Kalshi
What the Smart Money tells us: Traders backing Lane Kiffin, Sam Leavitt
As of game day morning, there's been more than $4.3 million traded on the LSU vs. Ole Miss matchup at Kalshi. While 58% of all traders are picking LSU, over 66% of the smart money from 10 known traders at Kalshi is backing Ole Miss to pull off the upset as a college football underdog pick.
The largest tracked trade, $12,000 from a user with over $1.6 million in career earnings at Kalshi, backs the Rebels.
Robert Criscola follows the money for all of the most popular Week 3 college football picks.
Our Rob Paul is still making the case for the Tigers with his LSU vs. Ole Miss prediction:
While Lane Kiffin and Trinidad Chambliss are the biggest names in this game, the defenses should be the biggest talking point. LSU has one of the most impactful defenses in the country, ranking third nationally in havoc rate (30.2%) and Top 10 in both EPA per pass and rush.
And though Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding was Kiffin's defensive coordinator, the Rebels are lacking on that side of the ball. Ole Miss' defense ranks third-to-last in the SEC in havoc rate (15.5%).
COVERS INTEL: Both LSU's Princewill Umanmielen (10) and Jordan Ross (8) are Top 25 in the country in pressures, with the Tigers having more than double the pressures this season (48) than Ole Miss (21).Our Geoff Clark offers up his three best LSU vs. Ole prop picks for tonight's marquee matchup. Colby Marchio's college football hate picks for Week 3 target a market both fanbases can get behind.
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Context: Two 2-0 SEC teams under first-year head coaches
Though Ole Miss narrowly avoided a Week 1 upset with a 41-38 win over Louisville, this is the toughest test of the season to date for both sides. LSU and Ole Miss project to be strong College Football Playoff contenders and could even vie for the SEC title game.
Pete Golding, formerly Kiffin's defensive coordinator and now Ole Miss head coach, has his team off to a 2-0 start. The Rebels made it all the way to last year's Fiesta Bowl, even after Kiffin's intended departure to LSU had come to light.
Kiffin added some further heat to tonight's reunion by listing starting QB Sam Leavitt as doubtful on this week's first injury report. Leavitt was upgraded to questionable the next day and would shock many college football pundits if he doesn't ultimately play.
Trading angles
- LSU is 64-43-4 all-time against Ole Miss, but the Rebels won last year's meeting 24-19 in Oxford
- Both teams opened the 2026 season with consecutive non-conference wins; three of the four combined victories were by 30-plus points
- While trading volume on this matchup will approach $10 million, the bulk of the Smart Money will come in much closer to game time
LSU vs Ole Miss live odds at Kalshi
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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