There are few weaknesses to exploit in a Big Ten Championship clash between Indiana and Ohio State, but the Buckeyes bring a wealth of talent, experience, and depth to the table.
Our Indiana vs. Ohio State predictions break down just how tough a challenge the Hoosiers will face when kickoff arrives at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 6.
Indiana vs Ohio State Big Ten Championship predictions
- Ohio State -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
- Under 47.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
- Mendoza u206.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Smith anytime TD (-130 at FanDuel)
Indiana vs Ohio State best bets
Ohio State -4.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Statistically, Indiana hardly throws the ball an undue amount, posting a rush rate over expected of 0.0%, per CFB-graphs.com. In other words, the Hoosiers run just as often as an average team would be expected to in a given game state.
But that number is inflated by Indiana’s habit in clear blowouts. Walloping Maryland and Purdue with rush rates over expected of 13.6% and 10.2% skewed that season-long number.
The Hoosiers throw the ball more than most teams, and against the No. 1 pass defense in the country in terms of expected points added (EPA) per dropback against, that aerial inclination could become a worry.
As much as there are hardly any flaws in either of these teams, Ohio State’s pass defense may be the biggest differentiator, and one that should give the Buckeyes a touchdown cushion on Saturday night.
/ Under 47.5 (-114 at FanDuel)
If the biggest differentiator in this game will be Ohio State’s pass defense, that obviously points toward an Under lean. Ideally, this total would tick back up to the key number of 48, but betting the Under on any total of 46 or higher should hold value.
Indiana vs Ohio State TD pick
Jeremiah Smith Anytime TD (-130 at FanDuel)
In his last 16 games, beginning with "The Game" at the end of the 2024 regular season, Jeremiah Smith has reached the end zone in 12 of them. Two of the exceptions came in five-score blowouts. In a moment that matters most, there are few easier cheat codes than Smith.
Indiana vs Ohio State prop pick
Fernando Mendoza Under 206.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
The Indiana Hoosiers thrive when throwing the ball by utilizing the run-pass option, but when the run game is stopped, or the short throws aren’t there, Fernando Mendoza has done a great job making throws downfield.
Those throws won’t be there against this Ohio State Buckeyes defense, for a variety of reasons. First of all is the NFL talent at every level of the defense.
They’ve got an excellent pass rush and a secondary that is among the best in the nation. It’s why they rank first in EPA/dropback and have allowed more than 173 passing yards just once all season.
Secondly, Indiana has struggled to prevent sacks when Mendoza drops back five or more steps, allowing one of the highest sack rates in the nation.
The other aspect is Mendoza’s struggles away from home. He’s completed 79.2% of his throws in Bloomington, with 25 touchdowns while averaging 253 passing yards.
Away from home, that completion rate dips to just 61.7%. He’s also thrown just seven touchdowns in those five games against four picks, and is averaging just 196.8 yards.
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Indiana vs Ohio State odds
Indiana vs Ohio State game info
| Location: | Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, December 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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