The New York Mets will try to salvage a series split as they take on the Washington Nationals this afternoon.
The Washington offense continues to roll night after night, and I like it to get a win and carry the Over in my Mets vs. Nationals predictions.
Read on for more analysis and to get my free MLB picks for Thursday, May 14.
Who will win Mets vs Nationals today: Nationals moneyline (+100)
New York Mets starter David Peterson has struggled to get back to the pitcher he was in early 2025. He’s 2-4 with a 5.40 ERA this season, and while he’s been better working behind an opener, his stuff still isn’t what it once was.
Peterson is allowing a hard-hit rate of 45.3%, and has seen his WHIP balloon to 1.57.
The Washington Nationals took advantage of this earlier this year, hitting Peterson for seven runs over 3 2/3 innings of work on April 29.
The Mets have been struggling to contain this Washington offense, and I like the Nats to win again tonight.
COVERS INTEL: The Nationals have a 46.2% pull rate against sinkers and sliders from lefty pitchers – the two most common pitches in Peterson’s arsenal.
Mets vs Nationals Over/Under pick: Over 7.5 (-122)
The Nationals have been the best offensive team in the majors so far this season, scoring 5.58 runs per game. That might be more sustainable than many suspect, as Washington has a .331 xwOBA on the year, sixth-best in the league.
But the Mets offense is waking up as well. New York has averaged 7.0 runs per game over its last nine, and both Juan Soto and Bo Bichette have hit three homers in this series so far. These teams are putting up tons of runs, and the Over is the play tonight.
- ML/RL bets: 9-13, -4.98 units
- Over/Under bets: 7-13, -6.53 units
Mets vs Nationals odds
- Moneyline: Mets +100 | Nationals -104
- Run line: Mets +1.5 (-213) | Nationals -1.5 (+203)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-117) | Under 7.5 (+113)
Mets vs Nationals trend
The Over is 5-0-1 in six meetings between the Mets and Nationals this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals.
How to watch Mets vs Nationals and game info
| Location | Nationals Park, Washington, DC |
| Date | Thursday, May 21, 2026 |
| First pitch | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY, Nationals.TV |
| Mets starting pitcher | David Peterson (2-4, 5.40 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher | Cade Cavalli (2-2, 4.05 ERA) |
Mets vs Nationals latest injuries
Mets vs Nationals weather
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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