A nationally-ranked Group of Five school takes on an SEC power program as part of college football bowl season.
The Auburn Tigers finished the season 6-6 and have now watched their prized quarterback, Bo Nix, leave for Oregon. With that news, it’s now officially T.J. Finley’s team. That’s not really good news as Auburn has lost its last four games with Finley under center.
Meanwhile, Houston played in the AAC Championship game but lost to Cincinnati. Now they’ll take on a bad Auburn team in the Birmingham Bowl.
With the way Auburn played in their final four games, the Tigers don’t even deserve a bowl game. At this point, you can tell by my stance who I’m going to be picking. Here are our college football picks and predictions for the first bowl game on Tuesday, December 28 between the Houston Cougars and Auburn Tigers.
Houston vs Auburn odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Auburn Tigers opened as a 1.5-point favorite and have now been bet up to -2.5. Of course, most bettors love to bet the SEC over non-Power Five conferences. Meanwhile, the total has shifted from 50.5 at open to 51.5 at most books.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full college football odds before placing your bets.
Houston vs Auburn predictions
Predictions made on 12/21/2021 at 4:35 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Houston vs Auburn game info
• Location: Protective Stadium, Birmingham, AL
• Date: Tuesday, December 28, 2021
• Time: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Houston vs Auburn betting preview
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our NCAA football weather info.
Key injuries
Houston: KeSean Carter WR (Questionable), Marcus Jones CB (Out), James Fullbright III RB (Out).
Auburn: Bo Nix QB (Transferred), Anders Carlson K (Out), Tar’Varish Dawson Jr. (Out), Jeremiah Wright DT (Out).
Find our latest NCAA football injury reports.
Betting trend to know
Tigers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. Find more NCAA betting trends for Houston vs. Auburn.
Houston vs Auburn picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Auburn Tigers have lost four straight games with sophomore T.J. Finley under center. Finley, a transfer from LSU, has really struggled in SEC football and hasn’t done much with great opportunity in both programs. On the season, Finley has thrown one interception with five touchdowns but has a completion percentage of just 56% on 91 attempts.
In Auburn’s last two games, Finley went 17 for 32 against South Carolina for 188 yards and threw 17 completions on 27 attempts against Alabama for just 137 yards. Auburn will thus try to beat Houston in the run game, however, Houston has allowed just 106.5 yards per game on the ground this year.
With Finley under center, Auburn’s offense is just not the same. He doesn’t have the mobility that Nix had.
Houston, on the other hand, will have Clayton Tune under center, who threw for 3,262 yards with 28 touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year. Houston wasn’t as good as Cincinnati, but they were just a tier below them — this isn’t a roster to be taken lightly. The Cougars finished 11-2 on the season while averaging over 415 yards per game on the offense and allowing under 300 yards on the defense.
Houston is going to succeed against an Auburn team that has had its hiccups on defense, allowing nearly 370 yards per game. It’s hard to rely on the Auburn offense to compete with the output they’ll cough up.
The defense will need to be lights out, but that’s going to be hard against a finely-tuned Houston offense that averaged more than five touchdowns per game this season.
Give me Houston +2.5 in this one.
Prediction: Houston +2.5 (-110)
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Over/Under analysis
Both Auburn and Houston are strong defensive units. Auburn allowed just 22.2 points per game this season against tough SEC competition.
Meanwhile, Houston allowed just 298 yards on defense and gave up just three touchdowns per game. I have no trust in this Auburn offense, and while I like Houston’s scoring potential and ability to cover this spread, hitting the total will be tough against Auburn’s D.
Grab the Under in this matchup.
Prediction: Under 51.5 (-110)
Best bet
I’m sticking with Houston +2.5 for my best bet. Auburn will have more fans in Birmingham and can derive a “home” edge, but Houston is simply the better team in comparison.
The Tigers finished the season 6-6 and won’t be able to outscore Houston in this game. And if you think Auburn’s defense is elite, wait until you watch how the Cougars defense performs.
It’s an elite defense that deserves more respect.
Pick: Houston +2.5 (-110)
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