Friday Night Football Best Bets: CFB Predictions for Tonight's Week 8 Games

Week 8 of college football features a loaded Friday night slate with five games, bookended by ACC matchups.

Among my favorite Week 8 Friday night football picks are Army and Air Force, with both service academies poised to run wild on the road.

My Friday college football picks also back a pair of Overs and break down why NC State can win big on the West Coast.

Week 8 Friday night college football picks

For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.

Matchup	Pick	Probability
Duke vs Virginia	⬆️ o47.5	51%
UMass vs UConn	⬆️ o50.5	49%
Army vs Tulsa	ML	46%
Air Force vs Wyoming	-5.5	50%
NC State vs Stanford	-6.5	54%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

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CFB Friday night picks this week

Duke vs Virginia: ⬆️ Over 47.5

While Virginia has dominated this rivalry for the last decade, Duke got the best of the Cavaliers in last year’s ACC Championship. However, these two teams are a far cry from where they were last season, and they enter this ACC title game rematch both ravaged by injuries.

The ACC injury report lists more than two dozen players out for this game. With the injury situation making it hard to feel strongly about a side, I like playing the Over at 48.5 or better.

Duke has one of the best running backs in the country in Nate Sheppard, who ranks top 10 nationally in rushing yards (820), forced missed tackles (39), and 10+-yard runs (26). The Blue Devils can ride him to offensive success against a Virginia defense that’s 130th in the country in rush success rate (50.2%).

The Cavaliers should do their part to push this game Over against a Duke defense that has allowed 24+ points in back-to-back games against two of the ACC’s worst offenses, Georgia Tech and North Carolina. Virginia QB Beau Pribula will be the X-factor against a Blue Devils defense that’s 65th in pass success rate (43.4%).

Prefer the Under? Our Duke vs. Virginia prediction takes Duke +1.5 and the Under 47.5.

UMass vs UConn: ⬆️ Over 50.5

It’s still unclear whether Pop Watson III will be suiting up at QB for UMass, but even if he isn’t, plenty of points will be scored in this game. UConn has one of the most lethal offenses in the Group of Six and one of the worst defenses, making it a perfect Over team (I’d play the Over up to 51.5).

The Huskies have scored 34+ points in four of their six games this season, but have also given up 24+ in three of their last five.

Quarterback Kalieb Osborne is one of the best dual-threats in college football, ranking No. 2 nationally in big-time throw rate (9.4%) and No. 9 among QBs in forced missed tackles (22). Osborne and running back Cyncir Bowers have the Huskies top 50 in the country in net EPA per play on offense and 14th in EPA per rush.

But even if Watson doesn’t play, UMass can move the ball on a UConn defense that’s 122nd in success rate (49.2%) and 124th in available yards percentage (58.6%). If it’s Watson vs. Osborne, get your popcorn ready.

Army vs Tulsa: Army moneyline

Tulsa’s defense has been put through the wringer the last few weeks, having to deal with triple-option attacks, and it’s only getting harder this week against Army. The Golden Hurricanes gave up 386 rushing yards in a loss to Navy two weeks ago, and 290 rushing yards in a win against Rice last week.

Army is better than both of them this season, and coming off two straight impressive victories over Tulane and Florida Atlantic in which Cale Hellums only needed to throw for 21 combined yards. That’s why I like Army to win outright as an underdog instead of taking the Black Knights +1.5.

Playing a triple-option for a third straight week might destroy Tulsa’s front seven, especially when it’s against an Army offense that leads the country in EPA per rush and ranks third in offensive success rate (53.3%).

While Army has defensive issues, it can help mitigate them by controlling the clock, and it’s not as if Tulsa is a big offensive threat. The Golden Hurricanes rank just 116th in offensive success rate (39.6%).

Air Force vs Wyoming:  Air Force -5.5

If you like triple-option football that rarely features an actual pass, you’re in for a treat on Friday night. If you thought Army winning two straight games while its QB threw for a combined 21 yards was impressive, wait until you watch Air Force.

The Falcons have weathered the storm of losing star QB Liam Szarka for the season by completely ignoring the concept of passing, and it’s working. That’s why I like Air Force to cover -8.5 or better on the road.

In its last two games, Troy Calhoun’s team has thrown just four passes, completing three for 18 yards while rushing for 869 yards. It won both games (covering the spread in each) and outscored Northern Illinois and UNLV by a combined 69-38.

Air Force leads the country in rush success rate (55.8%) and ranks No. 4 in EPA per rush, and they probably won’t need to throw the ball more than three times to cover against Wyoming. The Cowboys have one of the worst run defenses in the country, coming in 133rd in rush success rate (50.8%).

NC State vs Stanford: NC State -6.5

Things aren’t going well in Tavita Pritchard’s first season at Stanford. Andrew Luck’s longtime friend, whom he hired as head coach, has been outscored 222-57 against Power Four opponents this season, including losing four of five P4 matchups by 28+ points.

This NC State team is clearly flawed, but it’s competent enough on offense with CJ Bailey to cover up to -8.5 against a Cardinal team that’s 1-5 ATS since the start of September.

Stanford’s defense is one of the worst in college football, ranking 127th in success rate (50.1%), and Bailey has led NC State to 31+ points in three of its last four FBS games, all against defenses ranked higher by SP+ than Stanford’s (111th).

Even if the Cardinal are efficient offensively, they won’t be able to make up for a defense that’s 134th in early-down EPA per play and 137th in third/fourth down success rate (57.8%).

When NC State gets into Stanford’s territory, it’s likely to come away with points. Stanford ranks last in the ACC in points allowed per opportunity (5.06).

Looking for the other side? Stanford is one of the three picks in our college football Week 8 underdog picks.

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