In Week 3 of the college football season, the Florida Gators head to Death Valley for a primetime showdown against the No. 3 LSU Tigers.
It’s the marquee matchup of the week, and our Florida vs. LSU predictions deliver the top betting angles you need for your college football picks on Saturday, September 13.
Florida vs LSU Week 3 predictions
- LSU -4.5 first half spread (-104 at FanDuel)
- Under 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
- Lagway o208.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- Sharp anytime TD (+270 at FanDuel)
Florida vs LSU best bets
LSU -4.5 first half spread (-104 at FanDuel)
This year was supposed to be different for the Florida Gators. But it was more of the same as last week’s game against USF was nothing short of a disaster.
The Bulls came to the Swamp and walked out with an 18-16 win as 18-point underdogs in a game that was full of mistakes, penalties, and just confusing decisions by the Florida coaching staff.
Well, they’re going to have to clean that up quickly, because now they must travel to one of the toughest atmospheres in college football, Death Valley at night, to take on the LSU Tigers.
LSU followed up its impressive season-opening win over Clemson with a bit of an uninspired 23-7 win over Louisiana Tech last week. But one thing is clear. While Garrett Nussmeier and the LSU offense will get most of the headlines, the teeth of this Tigers team are with the defense.
The Bayou Bengals have allowed just 17 points this season and rank 14th in opponent yards per play. And that’s against one of the only early-season schedules worth talking about.
It’s the type of defense that could make life very difficult for DJ Lagway. The Florida QB had a tough outing against USF, throwing a pick and going for just 6.9 yards per attempt.
Nussmeier hasn’t blown me away with his performance yet this season, but he’s been great when it comes to decision-making. He’ll do enough to put some points up early. While the atmosphere at Death Valley and the Tigers D will do the rest to give LSU a moderate lead at half.
/ Under 47.5 (-110 at FanDuel)
I like the Under here. While Florida has its issues, its defense is still talented. And while LSU has looked solid on offense, it's not like Nuss and Co. have been lighting the world on fire. Mix in what looks like an excellent LSU defense, and we've got all the ingredients for an Under.
Florida vs LSU TD pick
Bauer Sharp anytime TD (+270 at FanDuel)
Bauer Sharp is going to find paydirt sooner or later, and this is as good an opportunity as ever.
The 6'5" senior was a clear safety blanket in the big-time matchup last weekend at Clemson, hauling in five receptions and getting targeted seven times.
With a closely contested matchup once again on deck, you’d have to expect he’ll be looked to fairly often. And he’ll have a good matchup, too.
The Florida Gators have looked vulnerable against the RPO and play action, and Sharp will be filling the zones vacated by linebackers or safeties stepping up.
At Oklahoma, before transferring to the LSU Tigers, Sharp was a red-zone volume guy, and you’d expect that to continue here — especially after it’s clear that a strong relationship exists between him and QB Garrett Nussmeier.
Florida vs LSU prop pick
DJ Lagway Over 208.5 passing yards (-114 at FanDuel)
This number is just too low.
The sophomore went over this number pretty easily in the loss to South Florida. It was a game he struggled in immensely, but he threw the ball over 30 times because Florida was often chasing points. I expect a similar story in this one.
Much like I expect Durham to get increased volume with LSU leading, I expect DJ Lagway to be forced to throw more with Florida trailing.
It certainly helps that I’m still not sold on the LSU secondary. They rank 32nd in EPA per pass attempt, but your perception of them is likely directly related to your view of Cade Klubnik.
I am lower on him than the market, and even though he struggled last weekend, the Clemson QB still exceeded this number. I’d play this to 215.5.
Florida vs LSU odds
Florida vs LSU game info
| Location: | Tiger Stadium, Baton Rouge, LA |
| Date: | Saturday, September 13, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
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Florida vs LSU weather
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