The way Alabama's defense performed in the second half against Kentucky has piqued my interest, and it's the reason my Florida State vs. Alabama predictions don't expect this game to reach its 49.5-point total.
My college football picks also break down FSU's chances of keeping this a close game at Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC) as the Seminoles hit the road for the first time in Week 3
Florida State vs Alabama predictions
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Early Florida State vs Alabama spread pick: Alabama -20.5
Shutting Kentucky out in the second half is the biggest reason for Alabama optimism coming out of Week 2, not the fact that it scored 45 points (32 in the second half) on just 343 total yards.
And yes, Florida State "hung tough" against SMU, but you can thank the Mustangs' four turnovers for that. In losing the total yardage battle 585-324, the defense allowed 8.7 yards per play while the offense was just 2/15 on third down.
That creates tough offensive circumstances this weekend, now on the road against a program with a tough defense and eager to avenge last season's ugly upset loss.
Alabama will take advantage of those glaring issues and find just enough seperation on the scoreboard. I'm laying the points but would stay away at -21 or higher.
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Early Florida State vs Alabama total pick: Under 49.5
Alabama is 2-0 to the Over, but last week's 45-17 scoreline masks the fact the Tide scored touchdowns on drives of 21, 34, and 43 yards in addition to a pick-six in the first quarter.
Keelon Russell threw for just 188 yards and the offense was good for 5.4 yards per play (that would rank 64th in the country this season). This is not a proven and trustworthy offense... at least not yet.
Meanwhile, the defense held the Wildcats to 3.3 yards per play and 1-for-14 on third down. These are the circumstances that have me expecting a brutal day for this Seminoles offense (65th in yards per game) now that they'll be away from home for the first time this season.
These teams are also among the slowest in the country, with FSU 86th in seconds per play and Alabama 102nd out of 138 FBS programs, and if Kalen DaBoer wants to keep the ball on the ground to avoid any more interceptions from its young quarterback, that will only help the Under's cause.
Florida State vs Alabama odds
- Florida State vs Alabama spread: Alabama -20.5
- Florida State vs Alabama moneyline: Florida State 10%, Alabama 90%
- Florida State vs Alabama Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Florida State vs Alabama
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
- City: Tuscaloosa, Ala.
- Venue: Bryant-Denny Stadium
- TV: ABC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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