A shaky first half against Wisconsin notwithstanding, Notre Dame has been as advertised in its first two games, outscoring opponents 80-3 in the three halves since then.
My Michigan State vs. Notre Dame predictions and college football picks expect more of the same in Week 3 as the Spartans enter Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday at 7:30 p.m. ET as massive 29.5-point underdogs.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame predictions
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Early Michigan State vs Notre Dame spread pick: Notre Dame -29.5
Notre Dame is 9-3 ATS against current Big Ten teams under Marcus Freeman and 5-0 ATS if you remove Ohio State and USC from that equation. This is exactly Notre Dame's wheelhouse, and even a mucked-up first half against Wisconsin didn't stop the Irish from covering a three-touchdown spread.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is 2-0 after taking down Toledo and EMU from the MAC, but the rushing attack that carried the Spartans to those victories will fall flat against an Irish defense that ranks 10th in opponent yards per carry, per TeamRankings.
On the flip side, Toledo was able to gash this MSU defense for several explosive plays, including a 71-yard touchdown run, a 60-yard touchdown pass, and three more plays of 20+ yards. That will be a major concern on the road against Notre Dame, and I expect the Irish to consistently cash in.
I'm laying the points but would not go much past -30.
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Early Michigan State vs Notre Dame total pick: Over 52.5
Notre Dame should get whatever it wants offensively in this game, and with the defense averaging three takeaways per game (sixth in the country), there could be multiple opportunities for short fields or even a defensive score to boost the scoring.
With MSU ranked 67th in opponent yards per carry at 3.9, the Irish should find some success on the ground despite a slow start in that area across the first two games (just 3.6 yards per carry). Through the air, Heisman Trophy odds contender CJ Carr is 11th in passer rating and has yet to throw an interception.
Michigan State's contributions to this Over may be limited, but I'm expecting Notre Dame to get well into the 40s, meaning only one or two scores from the visitors may be more than enough. I'd play the Over up to 53.5.
Michigan State vs Notre Dame odds
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame spread: Notre Dame -29.5
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame moneyline: Michigan State 3%, Notre Dame 97%
- Michigan State vs Notre Dame Over/Under: 52.5
How to watch Michigan State vs Notre Dame
- Date: Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026, 7:30 p.m. ET
- City: South Bend, Ind.
- Venue: Notre Dame Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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