Our BYU vs. Utah score prediction backs the unbeaten Utes to snap the Cougars’ three-game Holy War winning streak with a convincing win, as kickoff is set for noon (ABC) at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City. BYU won the last two meetings by a combined four points and expects running back LJ Martin back for today’s rivalry matchup.
Our AI projection model forecasts a 31-20 Utah win in our college football AI predictions for Week 10. That puts us on Utah -4.5 and Over 49.5 at the best prediction market apps. We like the spread better. Utah has 6.5 points to spare in our forecast, while the total clears by just 1.5.
BYU vs Utah score prediction & AI picks
Win probabilities courtesy of Kalshi at time of publish; latest odds may vary based on market action.
BYU vs Utah AI prediction
SAT · NOV. 7 · 12 p.m. ET · ABC
Win probability based on marketMore analysis
The Cougars have to tackle Wayshawn Parker without losing track of Devon Dampier. BYU allows just 3.3 yards per carry, but Utah’s quarterback makes the job tougher for the defender on the edge. Follow Parker inside and Dampier can keep the ball around the end. Stay wide and Parker has one fewer defender in his path. The Utes average 226.9 rushing yards per game and convert 54.1% of their third downs. That makes it tough for BYU to get off the field, and Rob Paul likes Utah to wear down the Cougars’ front in his BYU vs. Utah prediction.
Martin’s return gives BYU a better shot at the 20 points in our forecast. Coach Kalani Sitake told ESPN that Martin will play, and ESPN’s Taylor McGregor reported he’s in line to start if warmups go well. Martin averaged 7.8 yards per carry before his ankle injury. Without him last week, BYU ran 29 times for just 47 yards against Arizona State. Even a handful of productive carries would help quarterback Bear Bachmeier avoid third-and-long and give him more chances to find Legend Glasker, who averages 18.3 yards per catch. The Over is sensitive to how much Martin can contribute. A 31-17 Utah win would cover the spread comfortably and still stay Under.
BYU vs Utah AI projections & expert picks
| AI model | Covers projections | Covers expertBy Rob Paul |
|---|---|---|
| UTAH-4.5 | UTAH-4.5 | UTAH-4.5 |
Our model and Rob Paul’s expert picks both take Utah -4.5 and Over 49.5. The Covers projections also point to a Utes cover, but by a slimmer margin. They have Utah winning by about six points compared with our 11.
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How our college football AI predictions work
Our college football AI predictions use a custom Bayesian score model built from historical game results, separate offensive and defensive team ratings, home-field effects, and college football scoring patterns. The matchup analysis adds context from current team statistics, injuries, and recent results.
Score projections are generated independently of market prices. We compare each fixed score with the selected full-game spread and total to derive our picks, and track results against the original selections and lines. Kalshi percentages are market purchase quotes, separate from the model’s forecasts; the two sides may not add to exactly 100%.
A narrow difference between a projected score and a market line is a lean, not a guarantee of an edge.
