Bowling Green vs Kent State Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Eagles Lay the Groundwork

Some handicaps feel cruel. Finding what should be an edge in a game comes at one team’s expense, and sometimes it is so blunt, that it risks coming across as personal. But this is nothing personal, Kent State Golden Flashes, you are just that bad.

The Bowling Green Falcons are far from good, but they should be good enough in one particular area to rout Kent State’s college football odds tonight.

Let’s delve into some MACtion with my free college football picks and predictions for Bowling Green vs. Kent State on November 8.

Bowling Green vs Kent State best odds

Bowling Green vs Kent State picks and predictions

Kent State is 1-6-1 ATS against FBS competition this season, losing those six games by 9.75 points worse than expected. The Flashes failed to cover a five-touchdown spread to open the year at Central Florida, and, given what we know now about how average-to-bad the Knights are this season, that loss looks even worse in retrospect. Kent State couldn’t stay inside a 24.5-point spread at Ohio. It was fortunate to push last week as a four-point underdog at Akron.

But let’s look at when the Flashes beat the spread, a 28-6 loss at Arkansas in Week 2 as 38-point underdogs.

We have long since known the Razorbacks should not have been favored by 38 points against anybody on the FBS level, so that was part of how Kent State covered. The other aspect? Arkansas leaned on the Flashes’ greatest weakness to a comical effect.

The Razorbacks offense struggled out of the gates, scoring just one touchdown in the first half against the Flashes — remind me again, what happened to Arkansas offensive coordinator Dan Enos? Adding a pick-six gave them a 14-6 halftime lead, but the look was still bad.

That first half, Arkansas took 12 rushes for 64 yards and turned 10 dropbacks into 41 yards. It then ran 31 times for 123 yards in the second half while dropping back just 11 times.

The yardage was modest, but the three-to-one play selection was an extreme that set a tone against Kent State. The Razorbacks had second-half touchdown drives of 12 and 15 plays, covering 91 and 73 yards, respectively, to chew up a total of 14:22 of the clock. They found what worked, what the Flashes could not stop, and they leaned on it.

It got Arkansas a comfortable win, Enos and head coach Sam Pittman not caring about the spread, however inflated it was.

Not everyone leans on Kent State with the run, because every piece of this team is a disaster beyond redemption, but everyone could. The Flashes rank No. 107 in adjusted expected ponts added per rush and No. 132 (out of 133) in late-down success rate against. Opponents enjoy a successful run on 44.6% of their attempts, putting Kent State at No. 98 in the country.

Bowling Green will lean on the Flashes with the run, delighting in doing so.

The Falcons rank No. 13 in the country in rushing more often than expected given game state (down, distance, time, score, field position), per cfb-graphs.com. They are, at best, okay running the ball, ranking No. 91 in adjusted expected points added per rush and No. 73 in rushing success rate, but compared to the Bowling Green passing game, that rushing attack might be 2020 Alabama.

As Kent State fails to stop that ground game, a gradual lead should be built. Maybe not a massive one, but something like what Arkansas did in that second half in the second week of the season, and that will be enough for the Falcons to cover this number.

My best bet: Bowling Green -9.5 (-109 at BetRivers)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Bowling Green vs Kent State same-game parlay

Bowling Green -9.5

Kent State team total Under 15.5

Terion Stewart anytime touchdown

+213 at FanDuel

If Bowling Green is going to drag the game to a crawl with the ground game — in their last four wins, going 4-1 in their last five, the Falcons have rushed an average of 41 times per game while attempting 21.5 passes — then obviously Kent State will have fewer chances.

And Akron aside, the Flashes have scored more than 15 points exactly once against an FBS foe this season. There could have been a pithier phrasing there: “The Flashes have scored more than 15 points exactly once against FBS-quality competition this season,” but the Zips don’t need to be insulted right now.

Kent State was trailing 42-10 in the fourth quarter when Ohio gave up a 10-play touchdown drive. The Bobcats were overly relieved with Kurtis Rourke’s first quality showing of the season after that injury scare in Week 0, so they gave up a garbage-time touchdown.

If Bowling Green’s ground game succeeds so well as to be indifferent about a garbage-time score tonight, that will be a frustrating way to lose this thought, but let’s acknowledge how unlikely that is.

Adding a Terion Stewart anytime touchdown improves this same-game parlay’s payout by 65%, rather absurd given he has eight rushing touchdowns this season, including four in his last two games. The junior got rolling against Akron two weeks ago, finding the end zone three times, and if there is a defense comparable to Kent State’s, it would be the woeful Zips.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Bowling Green vs Kent State spread and Over/Under analysis

This spread opened with Bowling Green favored by eight on Sunday, steaming to -9.5 or -10 only on Tuesday afternoon. Obviously, the movement from -8 to -9.5 is hardly of genuine note, but more and more books are posting -10.

The Falcons were touchdown favorites against Akron two weeks ago, covering by 20 points.

This total opened at 46.5 before being knocked down to 41.5 almost immediately. There is no weather concern, that was simply an acknowledgment of how bad both these offenses are, even as Bowling Green runs the ball twice as often as it drops back to pass. The Falcons’ defense is far-and-away the best unit on the field, ranking No. 68 in EPA, a full 53 spots ahead of their offense, which is still well ahead of both Kent State’s defense and offense.

Bowling Green vs Kent State betting trend to know

Kent State’s last three home games have all gone Under their totals. Find more college football betting trends for Bowling Green vs Kent State.

Bowling Green vs Kent State game info

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