Though Texas Tech is set to make another run to the College Football Playoff as the clear top team in the conference this year, the Big 12's depth is impressive, with 10 different teams holding win totals of 6.5 or higher.
Two such teams are among my favorite 2026 Big 12 win total predictions and college football picks, despite one of them coming off a 1-11 season. Meanwhile, there are two obvious teams to take the Under on, with their head coaches' seats heating up.
2026 Big 12 win totals: Best bets
Here are my favorite Big 12 win total bets for the 2026 season. Looking for another school? Find my complete win total picks for all 16 teams at the bottom of the page.
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 Houston |
8.5 | Over | +130 |
 Oklahoma State |
6.5 | Over | +115 |
 Cincinnati |
5.5 | Under | -150 |
 Colorado |
3.5 | Under | +150 |
Favorite Big 12 Over win total bets
Houston Over 8.5 wins (+130)
All Willie Fritz does is build programs and win. He did it at the JUCO level, in Division II, in the FCS, in the Group of 6, and now he's doing it in the Power 4 at Houston. He inherited a 4-8 team, and by Year 2 last season, Fritz won nine regular-season games with the Cougars. Expectations are higher going into this season, but a repeat performance is attainable given how much Houston brings back.
The Cougars are 17th nationally in returning production (65%), and their offense should be even better this year thanks to that continuity. Leading the way is QB Conner Weigman, who was the only P4 QB in the nation to throw 25+ TDs and run for double-digit scores. And sitting behind him is the No. 1 recruit in the country, Keisean Henderson, who gives Fritz QB insurance.
Offensive coordinator Slade Nagle has plenty around Weigman, too, with top wide receiver Amare Thomas back and Fritz bringing in a few major transfers. Among them are guard Shadre Hurst and running back Makhi Hughes, both of whom were all-conference players for Fritz at Tulane.
The defense also returns a few of its best players from last season, including Khalil Laufau and Will James, while injecting several impact players via the portal. One such player, cornerback Jalen Mayo (Stephen F. Austin), has superstar potential.
Between the returning production, key transfers, and a schedule that's 134th in SOS (.436), the Cougars could sniff 10+ regular-season wins. Brad Powers even has Houston winning the Big 12 among his favorite college football long-shot futures.
Oklahoma State Over 6.5 wins (+115)
The Oklahoma State Mean Green Cowboys are set to pull off one of the biggest turnarounds in recent college football history. Not only did they hire Eric Morris from North Texas, but they brought the bulk of the players who helped the Mean Green win 11 games last year to Stillwater.
That's why Oklahoma State is Powers' most improved team in college football and why North Texas is his least improved team in college football. And it starts with Drew Mestemaker, who has gone from high school backup to a North Texas walk-on to one of the top QB prospects in the 2027 NFL Draft.
Mestemaker, like the past QBs Morris has uncovered and helped to stardom, has a live arm that helped him finish second nationally in TD passes last year (34). His favorite target came with him to Oklahoma State, too, with Wyatt Young (1,264 receiving yards and 10 TDs in 2025).
Those two, along with running back Caleb Hawkins (nation-leading 29 TDs at North Texas last year), should be among the best offensive players in the conference. But it's not just those three who Morris brought in via a transfer class ranked No. 2 in the Big 12; he added several other playmakers, bolstered the O-line, and nabbed multiple P4 transfers on defense.
Though the lineup is nearly entirely portaled, there's continuity on this roster given the head coach, both coordinators, and 8+ starters were at North Texas together last year.
Favorite Big 12 Under win total bets
Cincinnati Under 5.5 wins (-150)
In three seasons at Cincinnati, Scott Satterfield has won fewer than six games twice. Last year was the only time he's led the Bearcats to a bowl game. The biggest reason for the bowl appearance was Brendan Sorsby, who's now gone, and the reason the NCAA sent Cincinnati a letter of inquiry regarding the former QB's sports betting.
Without Sorsby, Cincinnati could regress in a major way. While the offensive line is the strength thanks to Joe Cotton and Evan Tengesdahl, they'll be blocking for a far less talented QB in JC French IV.
The Georgia Southern transfer was an adequate starting QB in the Sun Belt but had nearly as many turnover-worthy plays the last two years (33) as TD passes (37). The Bearcats also lost their top two running backs and top five leading receivers.
Plus, the defense was the weaker side of the ball last season and is relying heavily on Group of 6 and FCS transfers - five of them are projected to start.
And it doesn't help that Cincinnati has to play Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, Houston, and Kansas State in conference play.
Colorado Under 3.5 wins (+150)
At this point, is there any reason to believe Deion Sanders will turn Colorado into a winner? Powers wrote in his Big 12 preview that his power ratings project the Buffaloes to be favored in just two games this season, Weber State and UCF.
While second-year QB Julian Lewis flashed in limited action last season, the lack of offensive continuity could be a big issue for the young QB. New offensive coordinator Brennan Marion was a fun hire, and additions at receiver in DeAndre Moore Jr. (Texas) and Danny Scudero (San Jose State) should help. However, the O-line has been a problem for years and is once again transfer-heavy.
The defense somehow has even more new faces, with a new coordinator in Chris Marve and nearly the entire two-deep being first-year transfers. The roster turnover in Boulder is mind-boggling.
Once again, Coach Prime is banking on transfers to hit big, and that's going to be hard with a schedule that features two tough non-conference road games (Georgia Tech, Northwestern) on top of a difficult Big 12 schedule.
Complete 2026 Big 12 win totals & picks for every team
| Team | Win total | Best bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
 Arizona |
7.5 | Under | -125 |
 Arizona State |
6.5 | Over | -110 |
 Baylor |
6.5 | Under | -170 |
 BYU |
8.5 | Over | -148 |
| Cincinnati |
5.5 | Under | -150 |
| Colorado |
3.5 | Under | +150 |
| Houston |
8.5 | Over | +130 |
 Iowa State |
4.5 | Under | +128 |
 Kansas |
5.5 | Under | +128 |
 Kansas State |
8.5 | Over | +115 |
| Oklahoma State |
6.5 | Over | +115 |
 TCU |
7.5 | Over | +125 |
 Texas Tech |
10.5 | Over | -200 |
 UCF |
5.5 | Under | +130 |
 Utah |
8.5 | Over | -132 |
 West Virginia |
5.5 | Under | +145 |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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