2026 Big 12 Preview: Texas Tech Weathers the Storm

For the next few weeks, I will preview every college football conference, providing my current power ratings and projected win totals for each school, and also offering my favorite bets in each.

Today’s conference is the Big 12, which saw Texas Tech win a school-record 12 games en route to its first-ever Big 12 Championship. 

So what’s in store for 2026? My 2026 Big 12 preview thinks we could be in store for another Texas Tech/BYU matchup in the championship game.

2026 Big 12 best bets

Pick	Odds
Texas Tech to win the Big 12	+100
Baylor Under 6.5 wins	-140
TCU Over 6.5 wins	-155

Texas Tech to win the Big 12

+100 at FanDuel

Even with the downgrade from last year’s team, my power ratings still project the Texas Tech Red Raiders to be double-digit favorites in every game this season.

The Red Raiders avoid BYU and Utah (the next best teams in the Big 12) in conference play and get dark-horse Big 12 contender Houston at home.

DraftKings has posted a line on the Houston game, with the Red Raiders still favored by 13.5. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is favored by 15.5 at Oklahoma State. Those two could be Texas Tech’s toughest games of the season.

I project Texas Tech to win 7.7 games in Big 12 play, with BYU being the next closest at 6.6. I think there’s at least a 70% chance Texas Tech makes the Big 12 Championship game, and right now, I would have them favored by 5.5 points in that matchup.

Remember, the Red Raiders were 13-point favorites in last year’s Big 12 Championship game vs. BYU and easily covered.

Texas Tech brings back 12 starters from last year (tied for the most in the Big 12) and welcomes 10 transfers who were full-time FBS starters in 2025. Its 22 combined returning starters are tied for the most in college football.

This is still the most talented and most experienced team in the Big 12 by far.

Bet to -125.

Baylor Under 6.5 wins

 -140 at Fanatics

With a 36-37 record over the last six years, Baylor Bears head coach Dave Aranda is on one of the hottest seats in the country. 

Last year, Baylor returned 18 starters, and some prognosticators picked them to win the Big 12. The Bears finished 5-7 and were one of the most disappointing teams in the country.

This year, Baylor returns just five starters, including only one on offense.

Baylor is bringing in highly-touted quarterback DJ Lagway. However, in his two years as a starter at Florida, Lagway had a mediocre 28:23 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s also been injury-prone, missing several games with multiple injuries dating back to high school.

Even with the inexperience, I upgraded Baylor’s power rating this offseason. However, my ratings still project the Bears to be underdogs in as many as eight games.

Finally, with a coach on the hot seat, there could be a snowball effect if the team suffers an early loss. Right now, Baylor is a 7-point underdog to Auburn in the opener.

Bet to -180.

TCU Over 6.5 wins

-155 at BetMGM

The TCU Horned Frogs have quietly won nine games in back-to-back years, and I think they’re just as good this year. 

TCU only brought in 12 transfers this off-season, the second fewest in the Big 12 behind BYU. Not signing many transfers is usually a sign that a head coach likes his roster, and I think that’s the case here with Sonny Dykes. TCU did sign a Top-2 recruiting class in the Big 12 in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

One transfer they did bring in is quarterback Jaden Craig from Harvard, an underrated prospect. Craig was a two-year starter who threw a combined 48 touchdown passes with only 10 interceptions. He is 6-foot-3 and 230 pounds, with big arm strength and decent mobility.

The Horned Frogs also bring back leading rusher Jeremy Payne, and Dykes said both his offensive and defensive lines are the best he’s had in his five years in Fort Worth.

My ratings have TCU favored in eight games, and it has only one game where I project it to be more than a FG underdog (at Texas Tech in the finale). Even with some heavy juice, I love Over 6.5 here.

Bet to -175.

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Other 2026 Big 12 team previews

Cited college football win totals and odds courtesy of FanDuel.

Arizona

Win total projection: 7.5

Win total: 7.5 (Under -150)

Quarterback Noah Fifita returns yet again for his fourth year as the starter. However, Arizona did lose four starters in its secondary, all of whom went in the NFL Draft. I don’t see the Wildcats matching last year’s nine wins. I have bet Under 7.5 wins.

BYU 

Win total projection: 8.8

Win total: 8.5 (Over -134)

BYU is 23-4 over the last two years, and this year’s team could be even better. 

My ratings only project the Cougars to be underdogs in two games (vs. Notre Dame and at Utah). I think they make a run at the playoffs, and I have bet Over 8.5 wins.

Cincinnati

Win total projection: 5.7

Win total: 5.5 (Under -144)

Head coach Scott Satterfield is on the hot seat after a 15-22 record in the last three years. The Bearcats only return five starters, and there could be a stretch from Week 4 to Week 10 where they are an underdog in six straight games.

I'm taking Under 5.5 wins as a result.

Colorado

Win total projection: 4.8

Win total: 4.5 (Under -162)

Despite returning only three starters, I’ve upgraded Colorado’s power rating this off-season. Still, my ratings only project them to be favored in two games this year (Weber State and UCF). The Buffaloes also play three road games and host Texas Tech by October 3. 

Under 4.5 wins is the bet.  

Houston

Win total projection: 8.1

Win total: 8.5 (Under -144)

I think head coach Willie Fritz is the most underrated coach in the country. The Cougars quietly won 10 games last year and rank high in returning experience.

My ratings have them favored in nine games. I bet Over 7.5 wins earlier this off-season, but I would lean Under the current 8.5 win total.

Iowa State

Win total projection: 4.8

Win total: 4.5 (Under +122)

Iowa State has a new head coach and returns zero starters from last year. I project the Cyclones to be underdogs in 10 games. I gave out Under 5.5 wins earlier this offseason and still lean Under the current 4.5 win total.

Kansas

Win total projection: 6

Win total: 4.5 (Under -176)

Kansas loses long-time starting quarterback Jalon Daniels. They only have three Big 12 home games, with a trip to London vs. Arizona State taking the place of one. The Jayhawks could be underdogs in as many as eight games, and I'm betting Under 6.5 and don’t mind the heavy juice.

Kansas State

Win total projection: 7.7

Win total: 8.5 (Under -130)

The Wildcats underachieved the last few years under former coach Chris Klieman, so I like the Collin Klein hire. Quarterback Avery Johnson returns, and they avoid Texas Tech, BYU, and Utah in Big 12 play. I bet Over 7.5 wins earlier this off-season, but I would lean Under 8.5 wins today.

Oklahoma State

Win total projection: 6.3

Win total: 6.5 (Under -140)

I’ve upgraded Oklahoma State’s power rating more than any team ever in my preseason ratings. With new head coach Eric Morris and quarterback Drew Mestemaker, I think Oklahoma State goes from 1-11 to 6-6. However, this win total has been bet up from 5.5, and I would lean Under 6.5 wins despite the expected program gains.

UCF

Win total projection: 6.2

Win total: 5.5 (Over -154)

Last year UCF was 5-7 but out-gained opponents by 43 yards per game. That usually bodes well for the following season. The Knights should be much improved in year two under Scott Frost, who will call plays in 2026. Lean Over 5.5 wins.

Utah

Win total projection: 8.8

Win total: 8.5 (Over -134)

With Kyle Whittingham off to Michigan, Utah has a new head coach for the first time in 20 years, and the Utes return a combined zero starters on the offensive and defensive lines.

Still, my ratings project them to be favored in every game this year, although six are by single digits. Lean Over 8.5 wins.

West Virginia

Win total projection: 5.8

Win total: 5.5 (Over -164)

West Virginia returns just three starters, but I think it’ll be much improved in year two under Rich Rodriguez.

I’ve upgraded the Mountaineers' power rating 6.5 points. They do have to play at TCU, Texas Tech, and Utah, but every other game is winnable. I lean Over 5.5 wins.

2026 power ratings for Big 12 teams

Even with the unexpected loss of quarterback Brendan Sorsby, defending Big 12 champion Texas Tech easily leads my 2026 Big 12 power ratings. 

My ratings would favor them by 5.5 points over last year’s runner-up, BYU. However, Sorsby's departure did drop the Red Raiders' rating 3.5 points. 

Despite losing long-time head coach Kyle Whittingham and a big downgrade (-5.4 points), Utah has the third-highest power rating in the conference. Houston is next, as I’ve upgraded its power rating 3.7 points coming off a 10-win season.

Speaking of upgrades, I’ve bumped Oklahoma State’s power rating 16.6 points, the biggest ever in my preseason power ratings.

Odds to win 2026 Big 12 Championship

Odds courtesy of FanDuel as of 7-30.

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